Pound outlook after Brexit

Viktor Nossek -

Since Theresa May set out plans to invoke Article 50 at the end of March, we have witnessed a significant weakening of the pound against both the dollar and the euro. The pound’s weakness is further exacerbated by the fact we have yet to see any significant weakness in the… Read More »

The bright side of the devalued pound

Yann Quelenn -

A few days after the flash crash which sent the GPBUSD below 1.2000 before bouncing back, it is alarming that no concrete cause has been found. Many are blaming altos but what would be the rationale to justify such a sell-off during the Asian session? Others claim that a fat… Read More »

Gold’s sharp sell-off and the outlook into year-end

Max Layton, Mikhail Sprogis, Jeffrey Currie -

Gold has dropped sharply over the past month, from c.$1,350/oz to c.$1,250/oz, with the majority of the move lower occurring on Tuesday of this week, following hawkish comments by Fed officials (Lacker in particular) and a subsequent break of the psychologically and technically important $1,300/oz level (N.B. the next important… Read More »

Gold and silver: similar, but different


Silver is often looked at in gold’s shadow. The price performance of two metals is 80% correlated. We find that the best way to model silver prices is by looking at gold prices. Silver in gold’s shadowSilver’s price performance is 80% correlated with gold’s price performance. When investor sentiment toward… Read More »

Why the FOMC should raise rates, but won’t

Martin Arnold -

The FOMC has a history of being reactive to inflationary pressure and we expect that this trend is unlikely to change. The Fed should raise rates in September, but won’t Then and nowWhen the Fed began its most recent tightening cycle in December 2015, the stage appeared set for another… Read More »

Gold price: UBP remains prudent


Union Bancaire Privée – UBP is maintaining its prudent stance on gold and stand by its conviction that the yellow metal will probably remain range-bound for the months to come … … on the one hand it will continue to be seen as a safe haven and to benefit from… Read More »

Emerging Markets: Is now the right time?

Van Luu -

After years of difficulties and underperformance, emerging market (EM) assets have the makings of a potential turn-round. In recent years, EM bonds and currencies have been weighed down by a number of damaging developments within their borders. These developments include persistent inflation pressure, political turmoil and lackluster productivity growth. This… Read More »

Russia: Economic data on the rise

Yann Quelenn -

The ruble continues to appreciate and is now at a one-month high against the dollar. There are of course room for further upside knowing the ongoing Russian economic recovery. 62 ruble for one dollar represents a decent target in the short-term. This current strengthening is due to the fact that… Read More »

Potential benefits of a precious metals allocation


Adding a precious metals allocation to a diversified stock-bond portfolio has historically increased portfolio efficiency – lowering risk while increasing return Precious metals such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium have grown in prominence in recent years as viable investment alternatives to include in asset allocations. Despite being one of… Read More »