Markets


Gold’s sharp sell-off and the outlook into year-end

Max Layton, Mikhail Sprogis, Jeffrey Currie -

Gold has dropped sharply over the past month, from c.$1,350/oz to c.$1,250/oz, with the majority of the move lower occurring on Tuesday of this week, following hawkish comments by Fed officials (Lacker in particular) and a subsequent break of the psychologically and technically important $1,300/oz level (N.B. the next important… Read More »


Gold and silver: similar, but different

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Silver is often looked at in gold’s shadow. The price performance of two metals is 80% correlated. We find that the best way to model silver prices is by looking at gold prices. Silver in gold’s shadowSilver’s price performance is 80% correlated with gold’s price performance. When investor sentiment toward… Read More »


Why the FOMC should raise rates, but won’t

Martin Arnold -

The FOMC has a history of being reactive to inflationary pressure and we expect that this trend is unlikely to change. The Fed should raise rates in September, but won’t Then and nowWhen the Fed began its most recent tightening cycle in December 2015, the stage appeared set for another… Read More »


Gold price: UBP remains prudent

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Union Bancaire Privée – UBP is maintaining its prudent stance on gold and stand by its conviction that the yellow metal will probably remain range-bound for the months to come … … on the one hand it will continue to be seen as a safe haven and to benefit from… Read More »


Emerging Markets: Is now the right time?

Van Luu -

After years of difficulties and underperformance, emerging market (EM) assets have the makings of a potential turn-round. In recent years, EM bonds and currencies have been weighed down by a number of damaging developments within their borders. These developments include persistent inflation pressure, political turmoil and lackluster productivity growth. This… Read More »


Russia: Economic data on the rise

Yann Quelenn -

The ruble continues to appreciate and is now at a one-month high against the dollar. There are of course room for further upside knowing the ongoing Russian economic recovery. 62 ruble for one dollar represents a decent target in the short-term. This current strengthening is due to the fact that… Read More »


Potential benefits of a precious metals allocation

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Adding a precious metals allocation to a diversified stock-bond portfolio has historically increased portfolio efficiency – lowering risk while increasing return Precious metals such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium have grown in prominence in recent years as viable investment alternatives to include in asset allocations. Despite being one of… Read More »


Gold and Precious Metals: Relationship on the rocks

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Precious metals equities have re-rated to historical peaks or above. Morgan Stanley lifts its bull cases to reflect this, but still the risk reward is unappealing bar continued commodity price rises. MS downgrades Randgold to UW, with Centamin most and Fresnillo least preferred. Equity valuation disconnects… The recent rally in precious… Read More »


SNB FX intervention continues

Yann Quelenn -

The SNB has been acting to protect the Swiss Franc. The currency can currently be traded above CHF 1.08 against the single currency. Downside pressures on the EUR/CHF remain. It is clear that the Swiss National Bank tries to maintain the pair above 1.07 / 1.08. This is why FX… Read More »