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Forex

Is the strong euro set to last?

Trading at 1.18/1.19 to the dollar, the euro has become a pricey currency. But the European currency has also gained against all other currencies as its effective exchange rate has returned to levels unseen since the end of 2014.

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Central bank policy key for FX direction in H2

USD dollar in a bottoming process as the US Federal Reserve becomes more proactive with monetary policy. Euro primed for decline as investor positioning is extremely overcrowded despite measured European Central Bank (ECB) rhetoric.

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Upside potential for GBP after UK election

Investor sentiment has rebounded strongly, albeit from record levels of pessimism. We expect that the worst-case scenario surrounding Brexit negotiations has already been priced in for GBP.

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Swiss Franc as Safe Haven Currency

The Swiss Franc has always seen strong demand in times of elevated risk, be it market risk or geopolitical risk.And in the past it has probably been the number one “safe haven” currency, even ahead of the JPY and USD.

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Near-term downside for US Dollar

The US Dollar has jumped sharply in recent months, reaching the highest level since late 2002. The US Dollar has moved ‘too far too fast’ and could unravel in coming months if the US Federal Reserve’s actions don’t live up to its rhetoric.

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Pound outlook after Brexit

Since Theresa May set out plans to invoke Article 50 at the end of March, we have witnessed a significant weakening of the pound against both the dollar and the euro. The pound’s weakness is further exacerbated by the fact we have yet to see any significant weakness in the Eurozone economy or trade.

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