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Turkey: the road to a persistent crisis

The sell-off on the Turkish lira continues. The exchange rate against the dollar was above seven (7.2 in Asia) last night, it it now at 6.85 (just before 0400 pm, Paris time today) while it was at just 5.15 a week ago.

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Should Italian yields really be more Greek than Spanish?

It’s been nearly five months since the Italian general elections, with the result and the process of forming a coalition government eventually leading to the steepest selloff in BTPs we’ve seen for a long time, and the spread to bunds touching levels not seen since 2013.

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Economic Data Suggest Growth Rebound Forthcoming

Latest economic data signal a rebound in activity in the Eurozone – surveys signal 2.3% GDP growth – and we believe that growth in the second half will remain solid, with output growing above potential.

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Trade Turns into War

The first salvo in the trade war was fired when the US administration decided to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium imports and on USD 34 billion of imports from China, and to restrict Chinese investments in the US. The US’s trading partners retaliated by targeting specific imports from the US.

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The global economic outlook in 3 graphs

The economic environment is changing. The world Markit index level in the manufacturing sector is still showing growth (index at 53 above the threshold of 50) but it is trending downward since the peak of December 2017.

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