Our forecasts for longer dated government bonds were for yields to gradually rise during 2018, but not in an uncontrolled manner. At 2017 year end, we had 10 year Treasuries at 2.75%, bunds at 0.75% and gilts at 1.50%. These moves are small, but severe enough for us to position… Read More »
The world balance is changing under the influence of China as it seeks to establish a different path for globalization. America is trying to stage a response at Davos with the White House realizing that America needs its partners in order to be great again. Meanwhile, French growth is running… Read More »
World Gold Council -
Bitcoin’s parabolic price rise was the big story of 2017 – putting the spotlight on the cryptocurrency market. While gold’s performance was a solid 13%, it was a fraction of the 13-fold increase of bitcoin by the end of the year. Some commentators went as far as to claim cryptocurrencies… Read More »
The strong euro and its drag on inflation have increasingly been the subject of comments by the European Central Bank’s Governing Council members. At $1.24 at the time of writing, the euro-U.S. dollar exchange rate is back to levels not seen since end-2014, before the announcement of quantitative easing in… Read More »
We expect no new monetary policy decisions by the ECB at this Thursday’s meeting. One main consequence of the strengthening of the euro is the effect on monetary conditions in the Eurozone, which have become less accommodative. With the appreciation of the euro – 2% since the beginning of the… Read More »
Looking ahead in 2018, we consider the impact of Inflation and geopolitics to investments, examine the valuation level of assets and assess the risk of the market, in order to establish the key factors that could impact returns for this year. 2017 has on one hand been an uneventful year,… Read More »
Resurging credit growth will be the key driver behind Emerging Market equities continuing the outperformance that started two years ago, NN Investment Partners says. The growth in EM ex-China credit, or the amounts lent by banks to companies, institutions and consumers, rose throughout 2017 from 6.8% in January to 9.4%… Read More »
More than 10 years after the first tremors of what would become the global financial crisis (GFC), we expect global growth will finally return to its trend rate of 3.7% in 2018. The real question for us is whether this is more than just a cyclical upswing. Recovery from the… Read More »
According to its latest minutes, the ECB’s future communication will evolve gradually if activity continues to expand, a view widely shared among Governing Council members. In particular, ECB members focused on a gradual transition from the present conditionality of the APP to a broader concept of forward guidance, comprising various… Read More »
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is poised to boost a U.S. economy already running at full capacity. A windfall from lower taxes and incentives for capex could spur more consumer and business spending and corporate deal-making. A likely convergence in tax rates could create winners and losers, rippling across… Read More »
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