Focus

Asian markets have posted a better than expected performance in 2017, as share price returns have been supported by stronger earnings growth in technology stocks while a recovery in commodity prices benefited cyclical and industrial companies. Gains have also been attributed to softer than expected materialization of Trump’s protectionist agenda,… Read More »

Corporate capex growth is finally turning positive. After four years of decline, we expect global growth of 5.5% in 2017. The recovery is broad-based, with positive growth expected in all regions and in nearly all sectors. The global corporate capex outlook finally turns positiveThis is the fifth edition of S&P… Read More »

With regional economies moving at different speeds, and risks and imbalances often remaining specific to certain areas or countries, the divergence in global credit conditions that S&P Global Ratings observes contains a central theme: Uncertainty. Given the right–or, perhaps, wrong–circumstances, we think current high valuations in equity markets, low risk… Read More »

As widely expected, the FOMC kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1.00-1.25%. The market appears to have taken a very slightly dovish outlook, with the chance of a rate hike in Dec 17 slightly lowered to 40% versus 45% pre the FOMC. What’s next ?In… Read More »

Economic growth in the Eurozone is likely to remain solid, though a future acceleration in activity seems unlikely. We note the elevated level of PMIs, pointing to real GDP growth of 0.6% at the start of the third quarter, though optimism in the manufacturing sector slightly decreased in July, according… Read More »

As widely expected the Federal Reserve kept monetary policy unchanged at July’s meeting. The accompanying statement was little changed compared to the one released in June, however two elements have caught our and the markets attention. The FOMC acknowledged that ‘inflation and the measure excluding food and energy prices have… Read More »

The parliamentary elections in France resulted in a large majority for Macron and his Republican en Marche party, which gives him a strong mandate to pursue reforms and stimulate the economy. The snap general election in the UK resulted in a hung parliament with May’s Conservative Party losing its majority.… Read More »

India has had a strong start to 2017. After a shaky period at the end of 2016 when the reformist government took the radical step of withdrawing 86% of the currency from circulation overnight to tackle the ‘black economy’, economic growth has recovered and equities have rallied. Modi’s reform programme… Read More »

The first six months of the year have been characterised by an unwinding of the reflation trade, strong performance from risk assets and low volatility. Sharpe ratios are remarkably high – but we don’t think this is sustainable. Inflation expectations have declined since the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates… Read More »

The ECB remains committed for an extended period to a very accommodative monetary policy stance. There is no strategic change in the ECB economic diagnosis on the Euro Area. The recovery is getting strength and risks are now balanced. But the inflation rate is still way below the ECB target… Read More »