Focus

Firms operating within other sectors are also at risk under a US-led deglobalisation scenario. For example, if Mexico chose to retaliate against unlawful tariff measures by rejecting the validity of US patents, the pharmaceutical industry’s profits would be put at risk. This would reduce the incentive for US multinational firms… Read More »

Economic momentum remains positive, pointing to an acceleration after the publication of strong real GDP data (which rose +0.6% in the first quarter) and an acceleration in manufacturing PMI. Regarding the latter, we note a broad-based improvement in the various sub-indices: backlogs of orders rise, and current production remains solid.… Read More »

China has dramatically expanded its global presence as a security actor. China projects its military power far beyond the Asia-Pacific region, it shapes the security agenda in international organizations and it forges its own security partnerships in different parts of the world. The Chinese leadership has abandoned its decades-long international… Read More »

To borrow from British idiom, tests of the new European bank resolution framework are like buses: you wait ages for one, then three come along at once. Fresh on the heels of the June 6 resolution of Spain’s Banco Popular, on June 23 the European Central Bank (ECB) determined two… Read More »

Quantitative easing (QE) has resulted in heavily indebted developed economies and has had varying degrees of success. An unwinding of QE could cause increased volatility in the markets and a fight for remaining liquidity, as the supply of government bonds starts to disappear. QE has served its purpose of being… Read More »

There has been lots of talk from central bankers yesterday and even more today. Usually, these speeches are quite boring but every once in a while, they throw us a curveball. President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi started some tidal waves yesterday morning by making a simple yet… Read More »

The fears of a negative impact from the policies of the Trump administration on China – and, as a result, on emerging markets trade flows – have overstated the actual risk. In particular, we believe the risk of a trade war between the US and China has significantly subsided following… Read More »

After a strong start to the year, global equity and bond markets are trading near their highs. Bond markets have rallied on lower than expected inflation, while equity markets remain underpinned by moderate growth and strong corporate earnings. Investors may have reservations about valuations but, in truth, they have few… Read More »

One year on from the Brexit vote and a number of its knock-on effects for the UK economy are still very much in focus. Sterling’s steep decline, for example, was among the immediate headlines after the referendum and the currency’s lower value has persisted to become the main driver of… Read More »

The rising risk of global trade, capital and labour protectionism is an important investment topic. Protectionism affects both emerging and developed markets, in our view. Some countries have found different paths around rising global protectionism. This is in particular true for the Emerging markets where new trade agreements are being… Read More »