Focus

With a new majority in the French National Assembly, President Macron has increased the chances parliament will pass his ambitious reforms, which are aimed at transforming labour laws and spurring growth. But France also faces some hard fiscal realities that may take some time to fix. Ahead of France’s presidential… Read More »

The eurozone economy is making a steady recovery across the board. However, a broader perspective on the recovery reveals that divergences have widened between the major euro countries: between France and Germany on the one hand and between Italy and Spain on the other. If nothing is done to curb… Read More »

Following the latest interest rate rise in the US, we expect a further one in September and balance sheet reduction to kick in around the turn of the year The Federal Reserve (Fed) has raised rates by another 25 basis points (bps) and set out its plans for trimming the… Read More »

The European Central Bank’s governing council met in Tallinn last week, convening in the Estonian capital to contemplate an exit from its stimulus program, against the background of an ever-stronger European economy. The region’s steady growth has emboldened those who call on the ECB to unwind the quantitative easing (QE)… Read More »

This week’s Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be anything but boring. The Federal Reserve seems eager to move toward rate and balance sheet normalization, probably because President Trump is unlikely to nominate Fed Board Chair Janet Yellen for another term when her current term expires in January.… Read More »

This is the question we could well raise the day after Mario Draghi’s press conference that followed the monetary policy meeting. The President of the ECB was emphatic in convincing his audience and the entire investment community that there is no question of the central bank changing the way it… Read More »

Blackrock sees a bigger risk of an economically disruptive “no deal“ Brexit but also a wider range of potential outcomes The UK election resulted in a hung parliament, with no party winning an outright majority in an outcome that will create uncertainty about the path ahead for Brexit negotiations. This… Read More »

Clearly the political way forward is difficult, but from a market perspective it’s an ambiguous result. What we do know is that markets hate uncertainty and there will be volatility. So far the strongest reaction has been in Sterling, and this is likely to continue to be the case. There… Read More »

Following the latest labour market data, we do not change our baseline scenario of two more rate hikes this year, though latest data give some conflicting signals regarding future Federal Reserve policy. To us, a main element is the continued progress in the labour market. The May unemployment rate reached… Read More »

Our British colleagues at Neuberger Berman tell us this is one of the most unusual UK general elections for a generation, in terms of both the manifestos on offer and the dramatic swing in opinion polls. David Cameron gambled that a resounding Remain vote in an EU referendum would silence… Read More »