The drama that erupted in June when UK voters chose to leave the European Union has since morphed into a domestic British situation. Market and sentiment channels have transmitted little or no Brexit-shock into the real economy elsewhere in the world, and recent economic data indicate that mainland Europe, the… Read More »
The Fed’s view that the economic case for a rate rise is strengthening might lead some investors to believe that the nightmare of low growth and low yields is ending. Their optimism is probably unfounded. A downbeat update from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), confirms that recovery in developed markets… Read More »
Furthermore, despite the Fed’s attempt at normalizing rates last year, the economy appears too weak to endure more than one token rate hike. Incremental monetary policy measures appear to not be working – or at least growing increasingly ineffectual and “irrelevant.” Maybe Quantitative Easing (QE) only works if you are… Read More »
Paul Sheard, PhD -
Negative interest rate policy, as an aspect of monetary easing by central banks, is an odd thing. How can an interest rate be negative? Doesn’t that mean the lender gets back less than it lends, seemingly violating the economic truism that there is a (positive) time value of money? Indeed,… Read More »
It is still unclear how big the growth impact of Brexit will be. In the meantime, the policy stance will remain dovish. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s main message during the press conference following the bank’s July decision to remain on hold was that the ECB remains very much… Read More »
It is just over a month since the Brexit vote and market sentiment has lurched from doom and gloom to an uneasy optimism. The longer-term impact on the UK economy will depend on policies as yet unknown and negotiations over the terms of our divorce from our European partners, many… Read More »
Since January, Moody’s has stripped 33 US corporations of their investment grade status — the highest yearly number since the 2008 financial crisis. The recent downgrades have been largely concentrated in the energy and metals/mining sectors, as rating agencies moved to incorporate lower commodity price assumptions into their models. The… Read More »
Political uncertainty created by the UK’s vote to leave the EU will dampen already weak global economic activity and force policymakers to be more supportive, not only through monetary but especially fiscal means. Downgrading growth forecastsHow was the world before the shock of the UK’s EU referendum?For the second year… Read More »
You know you’ve arrived as an industry, an issue or a political candidate when you find yourself subject to the satirical potshots of the likes of expat talk show hosts (John Oliver), Twitter battles that pit the new Sherlock Holmes (Benedict Cumberbatch) and Harry Potter’s creator (J.K. Rowling) against a… Read More »
If the markets had not ended with a rally the day before the vote, people would most likely have been better prepared. However, last Thursday (23 June), while equities were up 2%, the outcome seemed certain, hedge fund managers were no doubt well-informed, Bremain would certainly prevail. But for those… Read More »
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