Focus

Italian banks face increasing market turbulence amid investors’ concerns about their creditworthiness. S&P Global Ratings does not expect recent events to affect its ratings on Italian banks Following a rocky start to the year, Italian banks are facing increasing market turbulence amid investors’ concerns about their creditworthiness. Bad loans in… Read More »

UK has voted to leave the European Union (EU). Following the result and the ensuing uncertainty, we can expect heightened volatility in the markets. British voters, particularly in the Midlands and North of England, have shown their anger regarding the effects of globalisation, austerity and an increasingly London-centric country. The… Read More »

Political fragmentation is testing Europe. The protest parties are galvanised by Brexit and demanding a similar vote elsewhere. While they poll strongly, whether they have enough support remains to be seen. Politics introduces a downside skew to growth. Is it a replay of the 2008-09 or 2011-12 crises? Neither, we… Read More »

While the knee-jerk market reactions to the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union (EU) fade, some longer-term ramifications could continue to create market uncertainty. I think it’s important to break the UK Brexit referendum vote into two components: the first being the permanent effects it will likely have… Read More »

Brexit has happened, bringing unlimited uncertainty and permanently redrawing the UK, European and global investment landscape. With markets increasingly pricing Remain in the days prior to the referendum, global equities are down sharply, matching or in some cases exceeding the dark days of 2008. Sterling is at the centre of… Read More »

How do you quantify the value of cultural integration? It seems rather anachronistic, but young people in the UK seem to appreciate far better than their elders the value of this – which is why they are overwhelmingly in favour of “Remain” What we do know, is that uncertainty around… Read More »

This year’s “Brexit” and last year’s “Grexit” have one common theme: referendums create uncertainty. And generally speaking, markets hate uncertainty. Uncertainty surrounding UK’s decision whether or not to leave the EU is starting to test traders’ nerves. Implied volatility of the GBP/USD spiking to 29% — a level comparable to… Read More »

Anticipation is growing in advance of the UK’s 23 June referendum on its European Union membership. The key battle lines for a potential British exit—colloquially known as “Brexit”—have already been drawn on the issues of immigration, political and financial accountability, and bureaucracy. Yet rather than focus on these qualitative and… Read More »

While the Fed (and Emerging Markets) may be enjoying a boost from weakness in the dollar, we would question how sustainable the current dovish stance of the Fed is It is important to stress that, in a world of small numbers, changes are important at the margin but, in our… Read More »

James Butterfill, Head of Research at ETF Securities: “Brexit is the mother of all market uncertainties: legal, political, economic, polling and currency risk combining to make any confidence about the short-term outlook foolhardy. We expect more instability in currency markets, as Brexit concern adds to the pre-existing uncertainties over Fed… Read More »