News


Greece is not Argentina

Jim Leaviss -

Don’t expect exports to drive growth if Greece leaves the euro I have heard it said, semi-seriously, that the biggest risk for the Eurozone isn’t that Greece leaves the single currency and its economy collapses, but that it leaves and thrives. In this scenario Greece starts again, debt free, able… Read More »


The Greek Tragedy

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A recent ruling by the Council of State, the highest Greek administrative court, has decreed that the government’s pension cuts in 2012, part of the second round of savings, were unconstitutional and incompatible with the European Convention of Human Rights. This decision will cost the government about 1.5 billion euros.… Read More »


Turkish elections: a coalition government is negative?

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Preliminary results from the Turkish parliamentary elections held on 7 June shows that ruling party AKP came first for the fourth time The party AKP came first for the fourth time by securing about 41% of the national vote (with 99.99% of votes counted so far*). Yet, it looks as… Read More »


Is Japan turning shareholder-friendly?

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Japanese dividends accelerated in late 2013 and the subsequent 30% growth must have contributed to the 40% gain in share prices Among popular asset categories, Japanese equities have shone over recent months. In fact, Japanese stocks are up around 10% in yen (luckily we were Overweight). Given the low returns… Read More »


Greece refuses to pay IMF

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New single payment is unlikely without financial assistance Late yesterday the Greek Government announced that it would delay four payments due to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) this month, rolling them up into a single €1.6 billon payment to be made on 30 June 2015. Prior to this amendment the… Read More »


The Third Industrial Revolution

ETF Securities Research and Roubini Global Economics -

Advances are being made in fields such as information technology, robotics, energy and health care that will dramatically increase productivity growth, global welfare and living standards, but some economies will cope better with these changes than others   Heatmap: Potential Winners and Losers From the Third Industrial Revolution (0 =… Read More »


Voting, Spending and Lending

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The Spanish local elections should give the market a better feel of how the ‘insurgent parties’ are faring Next Week’s PreviewEuro areaThe situation in Greece is likely to remain a focal point, with considerable uncertainty on whether a deal is likely to materialise in time for the government to pay… Read More »


Queen’s Speech – Energy storage

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The Queen’s speech reflects a shift in energy policy emphasis from low carbon, to energy security and economic growth. These don’t have to be mutually exclusive, but according to the time horizon being considered, one set of policies can distract from the longer-term priorities. The Government is keen to capitalise… Read More »


Fed signalling rate hike vs ECB accelerating QE

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Policy divergence may warrant hedging euro uncertainty   A resilient US economy, underscored by a hawkish sounding Fed amidst a tightening labour market is preparing investors for a very likely first rate hike since 2004. By lagging several years behind the US recovery, the QE-induced low interest rate environment should… Read More »