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Focus

Italian election results add uncertainty to bank outlook

With no easy path to government formation, repeat elections remain a possibility. A prolonged period of political uncertainty could harm Italian banks’ effort to dispose of bad assets and raise equity in the medium term if needed, says Scope Ratings.

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What’s in a correlation?

US equity indices have tended to go up with bond yields since the turn of the century. History suggests the correlation will remain predominantly positive until 10-year yields reach 5% and we are not convinced lower growth/inflation will change that. An analysis of the dividend yield gap gives the same answer.

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Embracing volatility

The abrupt reversal of equity markets in the last few weeks has sent shivers down investors’ spines, particularly as momentum was the dominant factor behind the rally that preceded it.

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How to profit from a return to volatility

An explosive start to 2018 has punctured a period of unprecedented market calm. 2017 had provided a particularly challenging hunting ground for stock-picking contrarians, as volatility measures hit record lows.

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Stronger Cyclical Momentum; Be Patient on Inflation

Last quarter GDP growth was solid, in line with expectations as well as leading indicators. In the details, a strong contribution came from Germany (+0.2ppt of quarterly growth), France (0.1ppt), the Netherlands and Spain (0.05ppt), confirming a broad-based recovery.

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Market volatility: tail wags dog? 

There is nothing in the equity market moves to date to give us concern that the strong global economic growth profile or the strong earnings per share growth profile that we forecast will be put in jeopardy.

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