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Trends

A Busy Electoral Calendar Could Throw Up Policy Risks

The crowded European electoral schedule (general elections in March in the Netherlands and in Italy by May next year, general and presidential elections in April-May in France, and a German federal election in September), and the possibility of unexpected political outcomes, could lead to sharp policy shifts in eurozone member states with implications for sovereign ratings.

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10 improbable but possible outcomes for 2017

It is time to forget central scenarios and think about improbable but possible outcomes. Some of our surprises would be bad (US recession, for example) but some would be good (a Mexican peso rally, say).

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La Française: Outlook and convictions for 2017

Despite generally positive expectations of growth in 2017, La Française should bear in mind certain factors that indicate uncertainty: President Trump's protectionist tendencies and the potential difficulties to realize his proposed program, the European elections, and the consequences of Brexit.

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Trump's impact on Asia

What then can we expect for 2017? Well, the biggest macro event for Asia is what Donald Trump does when he takes over at the Oval office

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Emerging markets: yield, growth, value

When we started to discuss the 2017 outlook, it struck us quite early that many of the key supportive arguments for 2016 will also hold true for 2017.

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We need to talk about Italy …

Year to date, the main Italian index, FTSEMIB, is down more than 20% (Price return, €) and has underperformed the broader European market by c22%. This has been driven by concerns surrounding the high levels of Italian gross non-performing loans (NPLs) in the banking system and the pending Italian Referendum

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