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Is the ISM index a bubble?

The ISM index for the manufacturing sector is, in August, at its highest since May 2004. It was then at 61.3 versus 61.4 in May 2004.

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Businesses in Greece: finally, a fresh start?

With Greece about to pull out of its third bailout package, signs of economic recovery are multiplying: 2017 was a year marked by the return of positive growth (+1.4%), and –despite weakening growth in the eurozone– Greek GDP growth is expected to be close to 2% in 2018, with Greek households and businesses remaining more optimistic in the fi rst half of the year than in 2017.

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Emerging Markets vs Wall Street

The recent and not so recent turmoil in Emerging Markets (EM) can be considered as normal if one is willing to see the United States as an “exceptional” country.

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Columbia Threadneedle comments on Turkish crisis

Whilst the headlines focus on the political rhetoric, in many respects this is an old fashioned Emerging market crisis prompted by a ballooning of external debt at both the public and private level. In the near term, the sharp depreciation in the Turkish Lira, the worsening relationship with USA and the imposed sanctions, increases the risks of the short-term debt rollover by Turkey and put significant pressure on the Turkish financial system.

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Venezuela: The crisis is far from being over

Venezuela is in crisis. Its economic activity is collapsing, its inflation rate is skyrocketing and the value of its currency is falling like a stone. People are leaving the country as soon as possible as they perceive that there is no future.

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Turkey: the road to a persistent crisis

The sell-off on the Turkish lira continues. The exchange rate against the dollar was above seven (7.2 in Asia) last night, it it now at 6.85 (just before 0400 pm, Paris time today) while it was at just 5.15 a week ago.

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