While the general macroeconomic data has been on the positive side, we continue to expect only modest growth going forward. Looking at the latest manufacturing ISM survey, firms are clearly more optimistic, with new orders rising strongly (+6 points in the sub index). Also, the production component indicates an improvement… Read More »
Bond yields in developed countries are still under serious downward pressure, and so emerging debt is once again an attractive diversification option. Emerging economies have suffered in recent years but have now entered a phase of greater long-term stability, and their bonds are already pricing in the main risk factors.… Read More »
Credit Suisse believes investors should be overweight defence stocks Exposed to rising defence spending: EU and US defence spending as a share of GDP is 18% and 10% below its 20 year norm, respectively, but is on the increase. Japan is debating amending its pacifist constitution, which would enable it to… Read More »
Chris Iggo, CIO Fixed Income at AXA Investment Managers (AXA IM), discusses the short-term outlook for global bond markets highlighting the importance of the upcoming US presidential election and its resulting impact as well as current positive trends in emerging markets (EM). Key Points The result of the UK referendum… Read More »
Italian constitutional referendum and European banks weigh on DM stock market but risk premium is back at very high levels for Eurozone equities The economic fallout from the Brexit vote remains limited, at least so far. Our global composite confidence indicator suggests that global economic activity remains subdued. Looking beyond… Read More »
Expect an M&A response to the challenges of a low-return world A low-return world creates four challenges for asset managersThe next few years are likely to be challenging for asset managers. We expect a persistent low-return environment to: (1) result in industry growth as much as c.400bp lower than in… Read More »
Gold remains bid as the US Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged. The Fed is signalling a December rate hike, but the market remains wary due to Yellen’s dovish tone. Gold ETPs inflows bounce back as market remains wary of December rate hike, totalling US$15.6mn. While the ‘no change’ decision… Read More »
Credit Suisse remains tactically overweight of financials with a focus on retail banking and GEM exposure. What is supportive? Bear market rallies can last for longer: European banks have performed in line with their average bear market rally (13% outperformance over two months) but some bear market rallies in Europe saw… Read More »
The futures market has highlighted an increasing probability of rate hike this year, weighing on commodity prices. Consequently, gold saw small outflows last week representing only 1% of inflows this year. The futures market has highlighted an increasing probability of rate hike this year. While the markets are pricing in… Read More »
Emerging markets (EM) are back in vogue following an exodus from the asset class last year. Year to date the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is up by 15.5%, whereas the MSCI World Index is up a mere 6.4%, as the outlook for EM has improved coupled with accommodative monetary policies… Read More »