Portfolio

Emerging markets have appreciated by 4% in US dollar terms over the first half of 2016, outperforming developed equities by 9%. The result of the UK 23 June EU referendum has diminished risk appetite and created negative contagion across global asset prices. Nonetheless, in the post-Brexit fallout, we argue that… Read More »

The markets and the bookies got it wrong. Britain voted to leave the European Union. As expected, the decision triggered a huge risk-off move in financial markets with the pound sinking to its lowest level against the dollar since 1985. Bond yields are lower because of the flight to safety.… Read More »

Gold and precious metals remain the best assets to face market uncertainty, as demonstrated in the past with the global financial crisis and again recently with the UK decision to leave EU With the Fed less likely to hike rates, the upcoming US presidential election, UK leaving EU, the ECB… Read More »

Plunging Energy Prices Create Strong Headwinds for Buyout Funds in 2015 State Street Corporation (NYSE:STT) today announced the results of its GX Private Equity IndexSM, a benchmark for comparative analysis of private equity performance, which includes a comprehensive data set dating back to 1980. In the fourth quarter of 2015,… Read More »

European Banks have dropped c.19% post the Brexit vote – this is the biggest 2-day drop since 1995 The largest 5-day drop, since 1995, is 27%, w/o 6 October, 2008, post multiple rescues of Icelandic and UK banks, after the Lehman default. We highlighted pre the vote (EU Banks –… Read More »

UK voters confounded expectations and the dire warnings of many politicians, business leaders and international non-governmental economic organisations by choosing to leave the European Union I think yesterday’s vote will create a noticeable increase in volatility in financial markets. Sterling will probably decline, and UK interest rates are now not… Read More »

UK Referendum result provokes sharp move from risk-on to risk-off A significantly weaker growth outlook; central banks focus on maintaining market functionThe single-largest macro risk for Europe this year – that the UK would vote to leave the EU – has crystallised. The decision lowers the growth outlook for the… Read More »

The people of Britain have voted to leave the EU. What does this mean for the economy and asset markets in the very short to near term? Our central thesis, as also highlighted in our previous pieces, that the UK’s structurally economic imbalance, as a result of Brexit, is likely… Read More »

Most investors believe that the greatest short-term impact – of fear of Brexit rather than Brexit itself – will be on sterling and consequently we have seen a big rise in short positions in our short-GBP ETFs. As we believe that Brexit is unlikely we see this as a buying… Read More »

European policymakers are reconsidering the favorable treatment of sovereign exposures in EU banking regulation, as part of measures to develop the EU’s banking union. Since the sovereign debt crisis, few still believe that EU sovereigns are rock-solid and that a government default simply “doesn’t happen.” A recent reminder that sovereign… Read More »