Bargain-hunting signals a shift in sentiment

The US dollar continued to appreciate (Dollar Index up 0.4% in the week), weighing on the commodity complex

Contrarian investors drive inflows into long crude oil ETPs to a 19-week high. Marking the fifth consecutive week of inflows, we saw US$52.5mn of flows into long Brent and WTI crude oil ETPs. When prices fell sharply between November 2014 and March 2015, we received strong inflows into oil ETPs as investors saw a bargainhunting opportunity. The rebound in prices between March and June led to outflows as they took profit. The recent price declines are once again bringing bargain hunters back in the market. We believe the current low price environment will motivate cuts in capex amongst high cost producers and lead to higher prices over the medium term. Though, OPEC will continue to produce more oil as Saudi Arabia in particular seeks to gain market share. The nimble US shale oil industry will remain price responsive and will be able to increase production when prices rise. Most of the cuts in production will come from high-cost (e.g. deep-water, oil sand etc.) non-OPEC, non-US projects. Once those projects are deferred or even cancelled they will not come back quickly as they have long lead times. With OPEC operating so close to capacity, any shock to the market could lead to price spikes. Upside risks to price outweigh the downside at these levels.

ETFS Agriculture (AIGA) receives highest inflows since October 2014. With agricultural prices falling across the board last week (and indeed over the month), bargain hunters have sensed an opportunity. With a strengthening El Niño weather phenomenon, the likelihood of a disruption to crop production is high, potentially reversing the price declines in certain agricultural commodities. We saw US$19.8mn flow into AIGA and a further US$5.4mn flow into long wheat ETPs (a 12-week high).
Grain prices were particularly hurt last week as the International Grains Council increased its grain harvest forecasts, despite Canadian and European dryness.

ETFS Physical Palladium (PHPD) inflows highest since November 2014, ETFS Physical Platinum (PHPT) inflows highest since January 2015. Receiving inflows of US$30.6mn and US$16.9mn respectively, the platinum group metals gained traction after weeks of outflows and price declines. Improving fundamentals including tighter environmental regulation (a source of demand for PGMs) and constrained mine-supply bode well for the metals.

Gold ETPs continue to be shunned as investors dispose of defensive assets.
A further US$163.5mn of outflows from long gold ETPs last week highlights the extent of the rotation away from defensive assets and towards certain underpriced cyclicals.

Key events to watch this week. As the US Fed prepares to raise interest rates it will be ultra-sensitive to the payroll numbers out this week. A strong reading could consolidate the case for a rate increase and drive the US dollar higher, which could normally weigh on commodity priced in US dollars.

Nitesh Shah – Research – ETF Securities