Britain to leave the European Union

This morning the UK population has expressed their wish that they would be better off outside the European Union (EU). Indeed, the EU referendum results indicate a majority of 51.9% wanting to Brexit.

No Systemic Risk
We would characterise this choice as unfortunate, given that the notion of national identity has become superfluous in a more integrated and digitised world. However, we would like to take this opportunity to emphasise that this decision does NOT represent a systemic threat to the European and global financial system. It is, however, very likely to create price volatility which we believe should prove short lived.

Any systemic threat typically is initiated through weakness in national banking systems, and both the UK and EU banking systems are in good health with much better unded financial institutions (customer deposits as opposed to wholesale funding). These institutions are also much better capitalised than they were in 2008 and 2011.

Central banks ready to act
Furthermore, both the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are on standby in the immediate period post-referendum, providing unlimited additional liquidity to banks should they require it: Open BOE liquidity window and TLRO-II operations. The central banks (including the BoE) are also ready to defend against any capital flight from the Pound Sterling, as well as a drought in liquidity, by stepping up their quantitative easing measures. Through this vote, the EU is unlikely to go on as it is, with the larger and more economically powerful EU nations likely to respond positively to this event in a bid to make the EU a more integrated and stronger bloc.

Vontobel Asset Management