Largest inflows into commodity ETP baskets since May 2016

Inflows of US$58.5mn into broad commodity ETPs, marks the highest in eight months

Signalling the broad-based interest in commodities, commodity basket ETPs see their highest inflows since May 2016. Following five years of underperformance, commodities made a come-back in 2016. We continue to see interest in diversified commodity baskets as more investors rotate toward the asset class.

Equities have had a strong week with inflows of US$39m. Thematic styles such as Robotics, US small caps and cyber security all saw inflows whilst Australian equities saw US$12.6m inflows. That came despite world equities seeing a decline in performance over the week, suggesting investors are searching for alternative investment styles as valuations rise. Investors are getting noticeably more bearish on broad equities. For example we saw US$16m inflows into short European Stoxx 50 equities and US$15m of outflows in long positions. In terms of thematics, Robotics particularly remain in favour with year-to-date inflows totalling US$50m.

The rout in precious metal that begun after the US presidential election now looks to be over, with inflows into gold of US$59.6m over the last week and US$96.6 since the beginning of the year. Recent payroll figures suggest a mixed employment picture. The FOMC implied that a March rate hike, whilst being data dependent, was unlikely, with a persistence of negative real interest rates most likely in our view.

Crude oil ETPs see largest outflows in six weeks. Outflows from long crude oil ETPs of US$42.1mn followed a 7% rally in oil prices last week as investors took profit.
While OPEC is one month into its 6-month production cut, the US continues to increase production. US inventory is rising as more oil rigs come into operation every week in the in the US.

Industrial metals basket ETPs see seven consecutive weeks of inflows. Inflows into industrial metal baskets totalled US$12.9mn. Against the odds, most industrial metals continue to rise. Last week’s surprise announcement from the Philippines that it will close 23 nickel mines sent the price of the metal soaring by 8%.
Largest outflow from long Yen ETPs since September 2015. Investors appear concerned that Yen weakness is here to stay, after divesting funds in ETPs tracking long EUR/JPY positions at the fastest rate since inception(2012), totalling US$4.8mn last week. With inflation expectations rising in Europe, and as the ECB is nearing the limit of its QE activities as it is expected to taper its asset purchase programme toward yearend,  the Euro should benefit.

James Butterfill – Head of Research & Investment Strategy – ETF Securities