The UK calls a general election on 8th June 2017

European Economics - Credit Suisse -

The UK has called a general election on 8th June 2017.

Theresa May blamed the opposition parties and the House of Lords for weakening her negotiating position with the EU and hopes that with the general election she will have a direct and stronger mandate to take the UK through the Brexit talks with the EU.
Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act, the government requires a two-third majority (434 MPs) in the House of Commons to back a general election motion. The vote in the Parliament is tomorrow. The Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said he would back the vote (229 MPs), as did the Liberal Democrats (9), implying we are likely to get the motiion passed tomorrow (Conservatives are 330 MPs).
Polls have suggested an increasing support for the Conservatives. Two polls over the Easter weekend put the Conservatives 21 points ahead of Labour. This is likely to greatly increase the existing working majority of 17 for the Conservatives.
In the short term, the general election is unlikely to have a major effect on growth. We expect this to be different from a 2015 style general election where uncertainty weighed on growth as 1) the results are likely to be more predictable 2) time is too short for the uncertainty to have much effect on growth. Hence we continue to expect a growth slowdown as inflation squeezes household spending and the BoE to remain on hold throughout 2017.
But the general elections are likely to have an effect on the Brexit negotiations. If Theresa May wins it would be a powerful mandate for her and her type of Brexit, which in turn would limit the ability of either the pro-EU or furiously anti-EU sects of the Conservative party to derail her Brexit. This could mean that it might be slightly easier for Theresa May to give some concessions in the Brexit negotiations and possibly deliver a softer Brexit than the one she has outlined so far.
Moreover if the Conservatives win, they will have until 2022 before there is another general election. That could cover the full post-Brexit “implementation” period and if they win, they would be able to steer the UK through a full Brexit. If they were to have an election in 2020, as was the initial plan, then there would have been an election mid “transition” period, which would have – in theory – allowed a change of course if a pro-soft-Brexit government was formed. If the Tories win this, that rules out that possibility.