Goldman Sachs AM comments il dato sull’inflazione USA

Recent market turbulence highlights market sensitivity to firmer price and wage data, however we do not think investors should wed their investment outlook to today’s data alone, not least given it is clouded by methodology changes and weather-related distortions.

Today’s firmer-than-expected print, which is in some sense encouraging given it reflects a normalization in components that have been notably weak, may extend recent market volatility, as expectations for Fed rate hikes are recalibrated higher.

In our view, market-pricing for Fed policy understates the solid macro backdrop, including a 17-year low unemployment rate, and the impact of fiscal stimulus, and we think there is scope for more rate hikes this year than the Fed’s current projection for three. That said, we think today’s data should viewed in conjunction with PCE inflation– the Fed’s preferred measure of prices – and wages, which were the culprit for the recent volatility spike, which will be released at the start of next month.

Andrew Wilson – Global Co-Head of Fixed Income Management – Goldman Sachs AM