Commodities

In conjunction with our commodity and oil services teams, we take a detailed look at the outlook for Iraqi oil production over the coming few years. Financing pressures and slowing investment activityremove further upside to volumes, in our view One of the big positive oil supply surprises this year has… Read More »

With economic momentum stalling in China, any hopes of commodity prices bottoming out any time soon have been dented The latest official manufacturing PMI for China signals stalling economic momentum. Producer sentiment in China, now reversing back into contractionary territory and below expectations, highlights the market’s fear of China’s economy… Read More »

Understanding China exposure by commodity is not so simple Below we show commodities with the greatest end-market exposure to China. Among the complex, we see the greatest exposure in the bulks and base metals, although lean hogs screens high as well. By comparison, oil – which was one of the… Read More »

The media frenzy over Greek antics shows no sign of abating as it seems that the Greek tragedy is becoming a never-ending story The practical confiscation of €50 billion of public holdings may help to cover some EU bank loans but will hardly solve the problem of excessive indebtedness. The… Read More »

The World Bank in its latest commodity markets outlook has forecast all commodity prices to keep falling this year with the notable exception of oil, which is expected to climb given an uptick in demand Declining oil prices attract bargain hunters. This week ETFS WTI Crude Oil Classic (CRUD) and… Read More »

The scale and speed of price falls in metals and bulks markets this year is now prompting investors to seek some perspective How do spot prices sit relative to each commodity’s cost curve now? What production capacity is at risk? And how does all of this compare with the history… Read More »

The backdrop for precious metals in general, and gold in particular, has deteriorated Central banks have stopped accumulating goldAccording to IMF data, holdings of gold by Central Banks have been peaking. The post financial crisis appetite for bullion is receding as several central banks have already reached their target breakdown… Read More »

The accord with Iran could open the flood gates in the coming months Iran is currently producing less than 3 million barrels a day, but has been mentioning a medium term target of production resumption to the vicinity of 5 million barrels. If drawing a parallel with the resumption of… Read More »

The bearish 3D’s of ‘macro’ combine with bearish copper ‘micro’ Substantially downgrading our medium to long-term forecastsThough we have been bearish on copper on a 12-mo forward basis for the past two and a half years, we have maintained a more bullish medium to long-term stance on the assumption of… Read More »

Commodities have been falling, mainly due to concerns over the Chinese stock market crash, economic turmoil in Greece and the recent Iran nuclear deal Commodities have been falling. So could this be a good time to buy commodities? Not all of them. Here’s my updated forecast: Crude oil – bullishNear-term,… Read More »