Focus

What will upset the Goldilocks environment?

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How to identify the future political and monetary policy events that will dominate market discussions is critical. It is our job to filter out noise and determine what signposts, events or issues are truly meaningful in terms of their potential impact on markets. This feels particularly pertinent at present, when… Read More »


Japan election: Abe’s convincing win

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Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partners scored a convincing win that will maintain alarge majority in both houses of parliament. This should extend the lifespan of “Abenomics,” including the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) mega stimulus. We see the outcome as a mild positive… Read More »


What You Should Know About China’s 19th Communist Party Congress

Celeste Tay -

China’s 19th Communist Party Congress is fast approaching. While the meetings are primarily a political event, they will shed some light on the party’s broad economic goals. There will also be major reshuffling across party leadership this year. Read below for our synopsis and predictions: Q: What is China’s Communist… Read More »


Catalonian tug of war

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Catalan President Carles Puigdemont made a speech yesterday in which he almost declared independence, saying he had the “mandate for Catalonia to become an independent state in the form of a republic”, but withdrew it almost immediately, saying he was willing to put the referendum results on hold in order… Read More »


The ECB’s Proposed Guidance For Nonperforming Exposures Could Beef Up Banks’ Balance Sheets

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The European Central Bank (ECB) has just upped the ante on prudential provisioning. Earlier this year it introduced guidelines to exhort banks to reduce stocks of nonperforming exposures (NPEs), and now its new draft proposal aims to ensure that NPEs are sufficiently provisioned. While we don’t foresee material consequences for… Read More »


Keep an eye on the cycle and central banks

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The global cyclical recovery continues apace while inflation has stabilised at abnormally lower levels (with the notable exception of the UK). With the economy accelerating in industrialised countries G7 central banks, apart from the Bank of Japan, are already cautiously tightening monetary policy slightly or about to do so. THE… Read More »



Controversy in Catalonia: What does it mean for investors?

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On Sunday 1 October, Catalonia held a controversial referendum for independence. The vote was deemed unconstitutional by the Spanish Constitutional Court and the central government tried to prevent it from taking place by ordering police and security force reinforcements to seize ballots and close polling locations. Nevertheless, more than two… Read More »


Are we witnessing the birth of the ‘cybercountant’?

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Although many aspects of cybersecurity are rooted in technology, a change in understanding is emerging that cyber risk’s historically technological perspective benefits from the business approaches that are native to the finance department. Finance Directors’ specific experience adds great value to an organisation’s cybersecurity strategy. They approach cybersecurity from a… Read More »


Catalonian referendum results

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The Catalonian government held an independence referendum, despite legal efforts by the Spanish government to prevent it. On Sunday, the Spanish police tried to block some of the polling stations and seized ballot boxes. The vote took place amid a fair amount of violence: Catalonian authorities claimed that over 800… Read More »