Washington averted an imminent fiscal crisis, but the result could be a steep fiscal cliff in December or early 2018. We see heightened political uncertainty toward year-end as the U.S. Congress must revisit lifting the federal borrowing limit and funding the government. We could see this delaying and reducing the… Read More »
As the global recovery continues apace, an orderly deflating of the bond price boom, fuelled by central banks‘ unconventional policy measures, is more likely than a sudden rupture, according to ETF Securities, one of the world’s leading, independent providers of Exchange Traded Products (ETPs). Years of central bank asset purchases… Read More »
The answer is yes…or at least that was the answer from Mario Draghi at the press conference after the September 7 monetary policy meeting, thereby indicating the importance of pursuing monetary accommodation in order to keep on supporting economic activity, despite the recent uptick in growth. However, the economy is… Read More »
Philippe Waechter -
Stan Fisher the Fed’s vice president has decided to resign at mid-October for personal reasons. This will dramatically changed the internal equilibrium of the Fed’s board. Until now, three seats were vacant but there were 4 members appointed by Barack Obama. Their mandates are going at least beyond 2020 for… Read More »
As the tenth anniversary of the Global Financial Crisis passed this month, our thoughts turned to the ongoing muted volatility in financial markets. The ‘Goldilocks’ conditions of improving growth without price pressures are something of a surprise, yet appear to be increasingly discounted in analysts’ and investors’ expectations. This situation… Read More »
The pick-up in global trade, which is partly the result of good growth dynamics in China, is having a positive impact on emerging markets (EMs). NN Investment Partners’ (NN IP) own proprietary indicators show that EMs continue to strengthen. The NN IP EM Financial Conditions Indicator has been in positive… Read More »
Benjamin Melman -
Markets were a little more nervous in August and equities and long bond yields both edged lower. Volatility was concentrated on currency markets amid mounting tension over North Korea and worsening impressions of the Trump administration’s performance. The US dollar’s fall in August was remarkable considering that it was unwarranted… Read More »
The debate on revenue neutrality versus deficit neutrality might appear fiddling, but it is nothing less than one of the key of this reform. With the reform of the healthcare bill back in a box and the rollback of Dodd-Frank relatively muted since May, the reform agenda of President Trump… Read More »
Despite political risk factors in the US and elsewhere on the worldwide stage, market confidence in the global economic outlook is maintaining the upper hand for now. Investor confidence in the global growth outlook and in continued accommodative monetary policy is keeping markets resilient in the face of persistent political… Read More »
The major difference between public debt and household debt is that a credible State issuer can issue debt with sometimes very long maturities, which households cannot do, so they do not have the same flexibility to adapt to shocks. The other key point is that a State enjoys the advantage… Read More »
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