Jean Pierre Petit, Antoine Lesné -
Which candidates are most likely to make the second round?JPP: At the moment, the likeliest prospect is a second-round face-off between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron or François Fillon.AL: We should not forget that the polls had Hilary Clinton winning after every televised debate. That said, in elections by… Read More »
There are four important leadership elections across the EU: France, Germany, Italy, and the snap election just announced in the UK. We look at what outcomes could lead to a structural change that could negatively impact the growth potential for companies we either hold or could consider as new investments?Source:… Read More »
All eyes are on the French election, and with good reason. After all, the Franco-German axis has been the driving force behind European integration. As a result, France has benefited enormously from a “political dividend” which caused its sovereign spread to remain more contained than the Italian, Spanish and Portuguese… Read More »
UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s call for a snap general election could bolster her negotiating position with the EU and within her own party. This may potentially lead to a “softer” Brexit If Theresa May can increase the Conservatives’ majority that would give her more power and room for manoeuvre… Read More »
As we approach the first round of the French Presidential election, markets are getting nervous again as the polls show increasingly a four horse race with Le Pen expected to win the first round. We think the market is correct to build in a risk premium, but we see the… Read More »
As we approach the first round of the French presidential elections on 23rd April, the uncertainty over who will make it into round two, and the final result, has never been greater. While a moderate candidate is the most likely victor in our assessment, the situation remains fluid with little… Read More »
Philippe Waechter -
Donald Trump thought that it was an easy task to replace Obamacare by Trumpcare. It was a mistake and Obamacare will remain the framework for millions of americans. He also said in his campaign that the US trade was a source of concern due to unfair trade agreements. He is… Read More »
Favourable European election results coupled with progress for the Republican growth agenda in the US could soften market uncertainty, says our Capital Markets and Thematic Research team. But for the next few weeks, the road still looks bumpy. The geopolitical scene is about to get smoky and hot. Within the… Read More »
The current dynamics of monetary policies is fascinating. The US central bank, the Federal Reserve or Fed, has just announced implementation at the end of the year of a policy that breaks markedly with its strategy since December 2008. The Fed finally seems to be coming out of the financial… Read More »
Yann Quelenn -
During the second debate of the French Presidential Election, the 11 candidates had the chance to expose their views on many different topics. Emmanuel Macron was widely expected to win and he was hardly attacked by the other candidates. No candidate performed badly and so it was very hard to… Read More »
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