• We don’t see a wage-price spiral. Companies are actually paying less in labor per unit of output, we find. We think wages can rise more without adding to inflation. • The S&P 500 plunged to new 2022 lows last week. We remain overweight equities in the inflationary backdrop but… Read More »
The decision by Gazprom to halt gas supplies to Poland (A+/Negative) and Bulgaria (BBB+/Stable) after both countries refused to use Russia’s proposed mechanism for gas payments is a significant escalation in the energy stand-off between Russia and the EU. The move also substantially increases risk of further gas-supply disruptions to other EU countries if… Read More »
MARKET MOVES •Last week concerns about the global economy and Fed monetary policy drove market sentiment. •Cut off of gas supplies by Russia introduced further major uncertainty into the outlook and also raised the risk of a potential oil embargo by the EU. •China’s COVID-19 lockdown measures and the ongoing… Read More »
Most of the CEE currencies that we cover ended 2021 with small losses against the euro, with the Czech koruna the only one bucking this trend, rallying by approximately 5%. The contrasting currency performances can, in our view, be largely attributed to differences in macroeconomic fundamentals, monetary policy, and risk… Read More »
“The decision by Gazprom to halt gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria after both countries refused to use Russia’s proposed mechanism for gas payments in roubles is a significant escalation in the energy stand-off between Russia and the EU. The move also substantially increases risk of further gas-supply interruption to… Read More »
Profit before tax up 4% to € 1.7 billion with net profit up 18% to € 1.2 billion Post-tax return on tangible equity (RoTE)1 of 8.1% Cost/income ratio of 73%, down from 77% in prior year quarter Profit grew despite 28% increase in bank levies to € 730 million Core… Read More »
1. Growth across the Euro area has so far held up better than expected since the onset of the war in Ukraine. The flash PMIs surprised notably to the upside in April, with the composite index moving up to a 7-month high. While manufacturing momentum moderated—driven by Germany—growth in services… Read More »
Emmanuel Macron won French presidential elections: In Sunday’s second-round runoff, Macron defeated far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen by 58.5% to 41.5%, confirming his leader in the most recent polls. However, the outcome in the second round was much narrower than in 2017 and the abstention rate was put… Read More »
President Emmanuel Macron was re-elected for a second term as expected, but the relatively narrow margin of victory over far-right challenger Marine Le Pen raises questions over the popular support for his reform agenda. “The biggest uncertainty at present is to know whether President Macron will be able to renew… Read More »
Incumbent President Emmanuel Macron will face far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in the run-off for the presidential election this coming Sunday (April 24). Yesterday’s televised debate between the two contenders was seen as somewhat balanced and has yet to shift voter sentiment. The latest opinion polls continue to point to… Read More »
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