China: Mapping potential tariff adjustments into RMB movements
■ With inflation running high in the US, rolling back some of the tariffs imposed by former President Trump on… »
Inflation, War, And COVID Drag On
Headwinds Are Eroding Credit Buffers On May 17, we announced downward revisions to our global macroeconomic base-case forecasts of between… »
Russian gas stoppages stress EU’s political unity and economic outlook, accelerate Russian gas exit
The decision by Gazprom to halt gas supplies to Poland (A+/Negative) and Bulgaria (BBB+/Stable) after both countries refused to use Russia’s proposed mechanism for… »
Fed likely set for a 75bp hike and more balance sheet reduction
It’s hard not to fixate on comments from the Fed’s Bullard suggesting that a 75bp rate hike would not be… »
The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: European Banks Can Manage The Economic Spillovers, For Now
European banks can manage the economic spillovers from the Russia-Ukraine conflict under our base case that envisages business disruptions in… »
Getting tougher
We remain relatively cautious going into Q1’22 results season. We lower price targets for WPP and Publicis again, where we… »
Impact of the drive for energy security
• We see the West’s drive for energy security slowing growth, increasing inflation and stoking demand for non-Russian fossil fuels… »
Ukraine – Three scenarios, and a global slowdown
Quagmire the central case. The situation in Ukraine remains very fluid. Our central case assumes a protracted crisis, keeping the… »
Taking stock of the energy shock
A new shock to supply We had already seen supply constraints driving high inflation over the past year, fundamentally changing… »
Asia insights
Upgrading Japan stocks Japanese equities did not escape completely unscathed in the year-to-date selloff in risk assets – yet are… »
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