U.S. dollar underpins EM assets


We see the U.S. dollar stabilizing or weakening over the next six to 12 months. Two broad drivers – monetary policy differentials and risk appetite – decide the dollar’s moves, in our view. We see a pause in monetary policy in most developed markets (DM) and some room for additional… Read More »

US Dollar: pros and cons

Stefan Kreuzkamp -

Are foreign-exchange (forex) traders the most far-sighted players in the capital market? Can the almost $5 trillion traded in and out of the dollar on a daily basis be wrong? Just two months after Donald Trump’s election the greenback began to weaken – ending a rally since mid-2011. Did the… Read More »

Tell-Tell Forex and Debt

Walter Snyder -

The US dollar is still by far the leading global reserve currency, and many market observers think that it will remain so for quite a long time. This Newsletter has predicated gloom and doom for the dollar, and now the scenario for the greenback is becoming darker and darker. A… Read More »

EUR/CHF at highest level since franc shock

Swisscanto -

The EUR/CHF exchange rate passed the 1.12 mark at the end of July, making the franc the weakest it has been against the EUR since the minimum exchange rate was abandoned in January 2015. The franc is cur-rently much less the focus of financial investors’ atten-tion than it was several… Read More »

Don’t Cry for the Argentine Peso

Brian Hess -

The Argentine peso has depreciated by more than 40% since 2015, but I believe it is due for stabilization and could offer a carry trade opportunity with attractive risk-to-reward potential. Improving scenarios The devaluation started in 2015, when Mauricio Macri was elected president and enacted several austerity policies in an… Read More »

Is China’s Renminbi the New “Safe Haven” Currency in Asia?

Celeste Tay -

Has China’s renminbi unseated the Japanese yen as the new “safe haven” currency in Asia? Some market commentators have adopted this view given the renminbi’s recent strength, intensifying geopolitical tensions in Asia and Japan’s proximity to North Korea. It’s true the renminbi has been the best-performing Asian currency this year,… Read More »

To Hedge or Not to Hedge

Aaron Hurd -

At the start of 2017 we saw significant downside political risk to currency markets as we anxiously awaited the outcomes of milestone elections in the Netherlands and France and sought to understand whether President Trump would behave differently from Candidate Trump. Moreover, uncertainties around the Brexit process overshadowed the UK… Read More »

EUR could retest new high versus the USD

Patrice Gautry -

The Jackson Hole meeting has not delivered specific guidance for monetary policy; we have to wait for the next ECB meeting and Fed meeting to have more details on their respective future strategy. During this time, markets and currency will remain data dependent, and the EUR could retest new high… Read More »

Market underpricing UK rate hike risk

Martin Arnold -

Upside potential for GBP despite the mixed message from the Bank of England (BOE) keeping volatility elevated. The market is underpricing the chance of rate hikes. One year on from the last rate cut, the Bank of England (BOE) has kept rates on hold, with the MPC voting 6-2 in… Read More »