Major commodity prices are showing signs of recovery. Both oil benchmarks along with most metals have been posting positive returns for at least the third consecutive week. Silver inflows begin to track gold inflows. Last week investors continued to pile into gold ETPs for the 9th consecutive week, recording inflows… Read More »
Updating Barclays Brent oil price forecast to $40/$55/$70 over the next three years does not alter our outlook for the challenged European E&P sector. For 2016 the goal is survival while ensuring portfolios are positioned to benefit from an eventual oil price recovery. We continue to view sector valuations as attractive… Read More »
Currencies battered by volatility to turnaround, with Norwegian Krone and British Pound leading the way higher Sentiment divergenceInvestor uncertainty, which manifests in greater asset return volatility, has been driven primarily by uncertainty surrounding US central bank policy, the softer growth outlook for China, and plunging oil prices. However, investor sentiment… Read More »
George Cole, Robin Brooks, Michael Cahill -
1. Since November, Sterling has weakened by around 8% on a trade-weighted basis (Exhibit 1). There is no shortage of explanations for the decline – over this period, Bank of England communication has become more dovish, the ECB surprised hawkishly relative to market expectations in its December meeting, the… Read More »
James Butterfill, Aneeka Gupta -
Gold miners are historically very cheap but at this juncture are likely to be a value trap due to profitability concerns We find ourselves starting 2016 with heightened market volatility. A global sell off in financial markets has pushed up gold prices by 2%, while gold miners have fallen by… Read More »
A longstanding ban on the export of most crude oil from the US was lifted on December 18th 2015. On January 16th 2016, sanctions placed on Iranian oil exports were lifted after the International Atomic Energy Agency found the country to be compliant with its nuclear deal US export ban… Read More »
$30/bbl oil price creates challenges for the Russian economy and the Big 4 oil and gas firms Russian government income is weakening as the oil price falls, both in USD and RUB, adding budgetary pressure. This has led to the imposition of additional taxes on the oil and gas sector… Read More »
Precious stones represent one of the best ways to diversify the assets. “In Switzerland this kind of investment is not yet so developed, but has a great potential for growth”, said Compostella (Idb Helvetia SA) Precious stones, and diamonds in particular, represent one of the best ways to diversify investments:… Read More »
The 2015 fall has seen some significant weather deviations: Europe and the US have been much warmer than average over November-December while weather has been hot and dry across Asia over the last few months. El Niño is key but there are other weather oscillations at playThe majority of these… Read More »
Martin Arnold -
US Federal Reserve (Fed) raises rates for the first time in nearly ten years by 25bps, to 0.25-0.50%. The future path of rate hikes is now the most important element of US monetary policy and will be the key for US Dollar (USD) direction The Fed finally raises ratesIn a… Read More »
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