It is time to forget central scenarios and think about improbable but possible outcomes. Some of our surprises would be bad (US recession, for example) but some would be good (a Mexican peso rally, say). It is time to step back a little. We recently reviewed the success of our… Read More »
Despite generally positive expectations of growth in 2017, La Française should bear in mind certain factors that indicate uncertainty: President Trump’s protectionist tendencies and the potential difficulties to realize his proposed program, the European elections, and the consequences of Brexit. Accordingly, the United States is experiencing rapid expansion – consistently… Read More »
The year 2017 is likely to mark the return of inflation to Europe. The combination of higher oil prices and the appreciation of the dollar against both the euro and the pound are already pushing headline inflation higher on the Old Continent. The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the… Read More »
In the six months since the UK voted to leave the EU, on 23 June 2016, the economy has been remarkably resilient. But we think 2017 will see a harsher economic reality. The chart attempts to depict the process from here. As we go to print, the UK is still… Read More »
The reflation trade is on but, to HSBC, the market reaction jars with the economic realities in Europe. Is ECB QE set to become an ‘ex policy’?There’s more than a whiff of Monty Python’s famous parrot sketch in the ECB’s current position.Like Michael Palin trying to persuade John Cleese that… Read More »
What then can we expect for 2017? Well, the biggest macro event for Asia is what Donald Trump does when he takes over at the Oval office Looking back, 2016 certainly has been a roller coaster year for financial markets. Perhaps one could blame the market volatility we experienced this… Read More »
Peter Elam Håkansson -
When we started to discuss the 2017 outlook, it struck us quite early that many of the key supportive arguments for 2016 will also hold true for 2017. These arguments are centered around yield, growth and value, all of which are rare in developed markets, but frequently part of the… Read More »
The election of Donald Trump radically changes the current equilibrium. Tax cuts programmed for 2017 will support private demand. Cuts are expected to total around 6,000 billion dollars over 10 years. This would lead to a 4.1% increase in US household income after tax. However, the reduction is not attributed… Read More »
The Economic Outlook by Philippe Waechter (Chief Economist of Natixis) Will global growth accelerate in 2017? In 2016, the global economy was characterised by moderate dynamics. Global growth slowed down and global trade remained on a very low growth trend (+0.8% in volume in September 2016 over one year, compared… Read More »
Italy’s social security reform efforts indicate significant progress toward alleviating risks to the long-term sustainability of public finances due to population aging. Yet, we expect that the country’s budgetary outlook will remain challenged, given the modest near-term economic growth outlook and the absence of a resolute reduction in the budget… Read More »
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