The UK referendum on European Union membership saw 51.9% of voters favor leave, surprising a market that had become confident of a remain outcome over the last few days. Thus far, financial markets have not shown widespread panic, just weakness and increased volatility. We expect the UK economy to slow… Read More »
Mark Mobius -
The United Kingdom had voted to leave the European Union (EU), leaving many investors surprised, including Mark Mobius I had believed the negatives of the United Kingdom leaving the EU appeared to outweigh the positives, and I thought the British people would see it that way, too. The uncertainty of… Read More »
The center-right (PP) was the winner of the elections, improving its relative majority by 14 seats when compared to last December elections, from 123 to 137. The far-left (Unidos Podemos) didn’t improve its position in terms of seats and lost in terms of number of votes. It remains the third… Read More »
While the knee-jerk market reactions to the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union (EU) fade, some longer-term ramifications could continue to create market uncertainty. I think it’s important to break the UK Brexit referendum vote into two components: the first being the permanent effects it will likely have… Read More »
Brexit has happened, bringing unlimited uncertainty and permanently redrawing the UK, European and global investment landscape. With markets increasingly pricing Remain in the days prior to the referendum, global equities are down sharply, matching or in some cases exceeding the dark days of 2008. Sterling is at the centre of… Read More »
In the Asian markets this morning, the British pound (GBP) has fallen sharply against the U.S. dollar (USD) (falling to levels last seen in 1985), with the euro (EUR) also declining.Currencies traditionally perceived as “safe haven” in general and the Japanese yen (JPY) in particular have jumped, amidst signs of… Read More »
Vontobel Asset Management -
This morning the UK population has expressed their wish that they would be better off outside the European Union (EU). Indeed, the EU referendum results indicate a majority of 51.9% wanting to Brexit. No Systemic RiskWe would characterise this choice as unfortunate, given that the notion of national identity has… Read More »
Brexit should drive the economy into a technical recession in H2-16 and in 2017 (-3%/-1% range), due to lower consumption and a fall in capex. The unemployment rate is expected to rise next year (by probably 1/1.5 point from the current 5%). As the current account deficit is large (7%… Read More »
The UK has voted to leave the EU, by a narrow margin of 52-48, in what is the most significant pull back to-date from the post WWII consensus of closer integration and open trade. While the actual path to exit is not yet clear, there are nonetheless profound implications for… Read More »
How do you quantify the value of cultural integration? It seems rather anachronistic, but young people in the UK seem to appreciate far better than their elders the value of this – which is why they are overwhelmingly in favour of “Remain” What we do know, is that uncertainty around… Read More »
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