The German current account surplus reached a record €270 billion in 2016, equivalent to 8.6% of the country’s GDP Germany is a special case within the eurozone, the only country where output exceeded its potential level in 2016, according to OECD estimates. This suggests that the economy is operating above… Read More »
Emerging market (EM) growth has shown a clear improvement since global trade growth started to pick up in November. This improvement has been reflected in better economic activity data throughout the emerging world, but also in economic surprise indices, which have been in positive territory since December and steadily rising… Read More »
The triggering by the UK of the European Union’s Article 50 today formally signals the UK’s intention to seek a divorce and allows exit negotiations to begin in earnest. What does this means for British companies and the risks and opportunities that may arise from ‘Brexit’? What do we know… Read More »
William Davies -
Since 2009 quality and growth companies have outperformed significantly. However, sentiment changed following the UK’s decision to leave the EU and the election of US President Donald Trump. Style rotations, where investors switch one type of investment style for another, are nothing new. At some point during most investment cycles,… Read More »
Thomas Schaffner -
Towards the end of 2016, as a result of the US elections, emerging-market investor uncertainty increased. As we approach the end of the first quarter of 2017, it’s time to take a look at developments in emerging markets and what investors should bear in mind for the months to come.… Read More »
External financing conditions in emerging economies remain highly volatile, as foreign investors repeatedly reassess the attractiveness of emerging market assets in light of ever-changing expectations about the path for interest rates in the U.S. and other advanced economies. This frequent reevaluation has resulted in the ebb and flow of global… Read More »
The Trump EffectThe expectation of Trump-policies has rotated investor sentiment into a risk-on posture. Equity markets have rallied and bond yields have risen. US equity valuations are stretched, the market is overbought and the bond market sell-off has been overdone. Therefore a market pull-back should present a viable opportunity… Read More »
The way investors think about emerging markets has been evolving—along with the markets themselves. One thing we at Templeton Emerging Markets Group emphasize is that one can’t consider emerging markets as one asset class; the opportunities are very differentiated between regions, countries and markets, with different fundamentals shaping them. I… Read More »
What is the common point between President Donald Trump and largest hedge fund manager in the world, Ray Dalio from Bridgewater? At a first glance, both men have not that much in common except one thing. Recently, they both ranted about main stream Medias for disseminating fake news. President Trump… Read More »
A congested political calendar this year, with elections in the Netherlands, France, Germany and possibly Italy in the next few months, together with renewed uncertainty over the Greek bailout programme and the UK’s decision to leave the European Union, have led investors to pay increasing attention to political developments in… Read More »
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