Trends

The UK referendum on European Union membership saw 51.9% of voters favor leave, surprising a market that had become confident of a remain outcome over the last few days. Thus far, financial markets have not shown widespread panic, just weakness and increased volatility. We expect the UK economy to slow… Read More »

The United Kingdom had voted to leave the European Union (EU), leaving many investors surprised, including Mark Mobius I had believed the negatives of the United Kingdom leaving the EU appeared to outweigh the positives, and I thought the British people would see it that way, too. The uncertainty of… Read More »

In the Asian markets this morning, the British pound (GBP) has fallen sharply against the U.S. dollar (USD) (falling to levels last seen in 1985), with the euro (EUR) also declining.Currencies traditionally perceived as “safe haven” in general and the Japanese yen (JPY) in particular have jumped, amidst signs of… Read More »

TIPS seem to be en vogue. Why the interest in this relatively unexciting, high-quality asset class? Some of the recent attention can be attributed to strong TIPS performance so far this year versus last year. But I also suspect that forward-looking investors are intrigued by the asset class as they… Read More »

A “Brexit” would potentially undermine trading and investment decisions and the fiscal outlook for the UK. These are obviously important considerations for the markets, not least because UK’s large trade deficit of 3.7% with the EU creates imbalances in UK’s balance of payment, which may give the UK less leverage… Read More »

After last December’s meeting when Mario Draghi’s announcements disappointed the market, expectations were high for the March 10th meeting As it turned out, the markets didn’t know quite how to react. After an initial +3% rally triggered by Mario Draghi’s first comments, the Euro Stoxx closed down 1.4%. Futures continued… Read More »

In the fourth quarter, emerging market (EM) assets posted modest to flat gains. This left investors, many of whom were hopeful for a year-end rebound, disappointed The recovery in EM was stalled by both macro and country-specific factors: Selloff in US high-yield bonds dampened investor sentiment Spreads widened, driven by… Read More »

Real GDP grew by 0.3% in the final quarter of 2015 and by 1.5% for the year as a whole in the eurozone. As in 2014, domestic demand was probably the main driver. The expenditure components of GDP have not been published yet for the region as a whole The… Read More »

US equities have declined year-to-date driven by growth concerns. Fundamentals suggest the US market and most sectors are undervalued. However, valuations seem to broadly confirm our sector allocations. Our models suggest that if the US consumer remains robust and inflation low, then there is upside potential in the market. The… Read More »

Moves by the Japanese and the euro-zone central banks fail to quell market fears It is quite clear that the initiatives taken by the Bank of Japan (negative deposit rates) and the European Central Bank (“pre-announcement” of further monetary easing in March) have failed to calm market fears. On the… Read More »