Fed normalisation to cap any potential upside


Over the past month, the market has endured a plethora of potential risk events, such as the French and UK elections, the ongoing political gyrations in the US and the Greek debt decision. As we expected, most outcomes have been followed by a strong reaction from the markets. Adding to… Read More »

Is OPEC Irrelevant?

Ryan McGrail -

In late May, OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and non-OPEC oil producers agreed to extend production cuts through April 2018 in the face of oil inventories that remain well above average. While one would have expected a positive market reaction, many investors believed deeper cuts were necessary and… Read More »

EUR/CHF at highest level since franc shock

Swisscanto -

The EUR/CHF exchange rate passed the 1.12 mark at the end of July, making the franc the weakest it has been against the EUR since the minimum exchange rate was abandoned in January 2015. The franc is cur-rently much less the focus of financial investors’ atten-tion than it was several… Read More »

Commodities hitch a ride on global growth


The US dollar weakened materially in 2017, increasing the appetite for commodities outside the US as prices measured in other currencies fell. In 2018, we expect the dollar to be steady. Highly favourable tailwinds give us confidence that commodity prices will push significantly higher in 2018. Stronger economic growth in… Read More »

Don’t Cry for the Argentine Peso

Brian Hess -

The Argentine peso has depreciated by more than 40% since 2015, but I believe it is due for stabilization and could offer a carry trade opportunity with attractive risk-to-reward potential. Improving scenarios The devaluation started in 2015, when Mauricio Macri was elected president and enacted several austerity policies in an… Read More »

Is China’s Renminbi the New “Safe Haven” Currency in Asia?

Celeste Tay -

Has China’s renminbi unseated the Japanese yen as the new “safe haven” currency in Asia? Some market commentators have adopted this view given the renminbi’s recent strength, intensifying geopolitical tensions in Asia and Japan’s proximity to North Korea. It’s true the renminbi has been the best-performing Asian currency this year,… Read More »

To Hedge or Not to Hedge

Aaron Hurd -

At the start of 2017 we saw significant downside political risk to currency markets as we anxiously awaited the outcomes of milestone elections in the Netherlands and France and sought to understand whether President Trump would behave differently from Candidate Trump. Moreover, uncertainties around the Brexit process overshadowed the UK… Read More »

Key considerations in choosing a commodity index

Edith Southammakosane -

The composition of a commodity index, the liquidity of its underlying contracts and the complexity of its rolling schedule can have an impact on its performance. There are a number of factors that need to be considered when choosing a commodity index to invest in. Historical back-tested performance only presents… Read More »

EUR could retest new high versus the USD

Patrice Gautry -

The Jackson Hole meeting has not delivered specific guidance for monetary policy; we have to wait for the next ECB meeting and Fed meeting to have more details on their respective future strategy. During this time, markets and currency will remain data dependent, and the EUR could retest new high… Read More »