Many commentators expect the world to deglobalize following the US-China trade war, the pandemic, and the invasion of Ukraine. We take a longer perspective and ask if globalization—the growth in cross-border movement of goods, capital, people, technologies, data, and ideas—has already started to reverse. Despite a rapid 2021 rebound, global… Read More »
Italy, just like other European countries, has launched last year a National Recovery and Resilience Plan. The plan is funded by the EU in the framework of the NGEU – Next Generation EU – initiative, and Italy’s share corresponds to 191.5 billion Euros, to be spent in the period 2021… Read More »
Prediction markets strongly favor a win by President Macron over Ms. Le Pen in the second round of the French presidential election on Sunday April 24. However, the situation remains fluid, and comparisons with 2017 may be leading investors to be too sanguine about both the probability and the impact… Read More »
Minimal impact in the short term, but not helpful In the short term, we expect minimal impact both on demand and supply from the Russia/Ukraine conflict for our coverage. Russia and Ukraine represent a very small fraction of sales for the semi industry (e.g. Taiwan semi exports to Russia were… Read More »
• Supply shocks have created scarcity inflation, making higher inflation more persistent and increasing the risk of a growth slowdown. • Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields hit three-year highs after it became clear the Fed will start to reduce its balance sheet quickly. We see further yield rises ahead. • We… Read More »
Last week, we introduced The 4 fundamental investment shifts triggered by the current geopolitical conflict. One of the shifts we highlighted was the need to recognise that geopolitical risks are always around the corner. The chart below shows how the war in Ukraine has elevated geopolitical risks in the same… Read More »
The Euro finished the week at the bottom of the G10 rankings on concerns the war in Ukraine will not stop any time soon as well as jitters about the French presidential election. The carnage in the US bond market continues, with 10-year Treasury yields up an astounding 30 bp on the week,… Read More »
Russia’s war on Ukraine could be a game changer for global banking. European banks are in the front row, whether they are prepared or not. Market analysts and supervisors1 say that direct exposures to Russian counterparties are manageable, hence no need to panic. But in my view the impact of… Read More »
Limited impact due to National Labour contract Barclays macro team has written about how inflation affects wages in the Euro area (for example Euro area wages: Picking up (a little) dated 23-02-22, Euro Themes: Tracking the rebound of negotiated wages – Italy dated 19-01-22). Here we look at Italy only,… Read More »
Global growth expectations have dropped with the spike in oil prices, which have historically often been associated with surges in inflation, reductions in real income, and eventually recessions (Exhibit 1). However, the relationship between oil prices and growth has changed for two major reasons. On the one hand,… Read More »
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