News

Is the World Deglobalizing, Slowbalizing or Newbalizing?

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Many commentators expect the world to deglobalize following the US-China trade war, the pandemic, and the invasion of Ukraine. We take a longer perspective and ask if globalization—the growth in cross-border movement of goods, capital, people, technologies, data, and ideas—has already started to reverse. Despite a rapid 2021 rebound, global… Read More »




Impact from the Russia-Ukraine conflict

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Minimal impact in the short term, but not helpful In the short term, we expect minimal impact both on demand and supply from the Russia/Ukraine conflict for our coverage. Russia and Ukraine represent a very small fraction of sales for the semi industry (e.g. Taiwan semi exports to Russia were… Read More »


Scarcity inflation raises growth risk

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• Supply shocks have created scarcity inflation, making higher inflation more persistent and increasing the risk of a growth slowdown. • Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields hit three-year highs after it became clear the Fed will start to reduce its balance sheet quickly. We see further yield rises ahead. • We… Read More »





What does inflation do to labour costs?

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Limited impact due to National Labour contract Barclays macro team has written about how inflation affects wages in the Euro area (for example Euro area wages: Picking up (a little) dated 23-02-22, Euro Themes: Tracking the rebound of negotiated wages – Italy dated 19-01-22). Here we look at Italy only,… Read More »


Oil Prices and Growth: Is This Time Different?

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Global growth expectations have dropped with the spike in oil prices, which have historically often been associated with surges in inflation, reductions in real income, and eventually recessions (Exhibit 1).     However, the relationship between oil prices and growth has changed for two major reasons. On the one hand,… Read More »