Alas, it is settled. Inflation is not transitory. Its persistent uptick has serious implications for the global economy. The ongoing conflict, in addition to all the suffering it is causing in Ukraine, has created a further inflationary shock for the world. How are investors hedging themselves? Don’t be surprised by… Read More »
Thematic universe overview AUM in thematic Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) and open-ended funds stands at $289 billion as of end of March 2022. ETFs’ market share hovers around 13%, with a total AUM of $44 billion. Flows have remained positive in Q1 2022, with $7.3 billion across ETFs and open-ended… Read More »
• We prefer equities even as bond yields have sprinted higher. Global growth is still solid, and we see central banks ultimately living with inflation. • U.S. 10-year yields hit new three-year highs last week, and stocks fell. The European Central Bank affirmed our view it will normalize policy very… Read More »
Many commentators expect the world to deglobalize following the US-China trade war, the pandemic, and the invasion of Ukraine. We take a longer perspective and ask if globalization—the growth in cross-border movement of goods, capital, people, technologies, data, and ideas—has already started to reverse. Despite a rapid 2021 rebound, global… Read More »
Italy, just like other European countries, has launched last year a National Recovery and Resilience Plan. The plan is funded by the EU in the framework of the NGEU – Next Generation EU – initiative, and Italy’s share corresponds to 191.5 billion Euros, to be spent in the period 2021… Read More »
Prediction markets strongly favor a win by President Macron over Ms. Le Pen in the second round of the French presidential election on Sunday April 24. However, the situation remains fluid, and comparisons with 2017 may be leading investors to be too sanguine about both the probability and the impact… Read More »
We remain relatively cautious going into Q1’22 results season. We lower price targets for WPP and Publicis again, where we expect an advertising slowdown, and continue to focus on noncyclical secular growth stocks, with UMG our top pick. We also resume coverage on Pearson, at Equal-weight. Cyclical headwinds to intensify:… Read More »
Minimal impact in the short term, but not helpful In the short term, we expect minimal impact both on demand and supply from the Russia/Ukraine conflict for our coverage. Russia and Ukraine represent a very small fraction of sales for the semi industry (e.g. Taiwan semi exports to Russia were… Read More »
• Supply shocks have created scarcity inflation, making higher inflation more persistent and increasing the risk of a growth slowdown. • Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields hit three-year highs after it became clear the Fed will start to reduce its balance sheet quickly. We see further yield rises ahead. • We… Read More »
Last week, we introduced The 4 fundamental investment shifts triggered by the current geopolitical conflict. One of the shifts we highlighted was the need to recognise that geopolitical risks are always around the corner. The chart below shows how the war in Ukraine has elevated geopolitical risks in the same… Read More »
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