Impact of the drive for energy security


• We see the West’s drive for energy security slowing growth, increasing inflation and stoking demand for non-Russian fossil fuels to alleviate consumer pain. • Data last week showed U.S. inflation at 40-year highs and a robust labor market. We expect the Fed to deliver on this year’s projected rate… Read More »

Taking stock of the energy shock


A new shock to supply  We had already seen supply constraints driving high inflation over the past year, fundamentally changing how we  should think about the macro environment and market implications. The pandemic resulted in a huge switch in  consumer spending in the U.S., away from services and towards goods.… Read More »

Energy shock, Fed spur new outlook

BlackRock Investment Institute -

 We now prefer U.S. and Japanese equities over European stocks due to the energy shock. We stay underweight bonds because of the inflationary backdrop. Market backdrop: Bond yields sprinted higher last week, with U.S. 10 year Treasuries hitting near three year highs. Signs of weakening economic activity emerged in Europe.… Read More »

The Next Global Worst Nightmare Scenario


In today’s turbulent world, punctuated by destabilizing events of increasing intensity and frequency, it is vital to know what a worst-case scenario is and which factors are critical. What were considered low-probability events in the past must be countered today on an almost daily basis. However, in the context of… Read More »

EU’s Recovery and Resilience Plan – Science or Opinions?


Italy, just like other European countries, has launched recently a National Recovery and Resilience Plan. The plan is funded by the EU in the framework of the NGEU – Next Generation EU – initiative, and Italy’s chunk corresponds to 191.5 billion Euros, to be spent in the period 2021 –… Read More »

Goldman Sachs to Acquire NN Investment Partners


The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (“Goldman Sachs”) today announced that it has entered into an agreement to acquire NN Investment Partners from NN Group N.V. for approximately €1.6 billion (1). The transaction is expected to close by the end of the first quarter of 2022, subject to regulatory and other approvals… Read More »

After the pandemic: the new way to invest


As the threat of the Spanish flu receded a hundred years ago, people celebrated by holding large public festivals. What followed for those who survived the spread of the disease was a period of both social and economic euphoria. According to historians, pandemics can be brought to an end either… Read More »

Resilience and New Ways to Rate a Company


The Probability of Default (PoD) of a company is the central concept behind a conventional rating. Ratings constitute a fundamental link between markets and investors. Their importance cannot be overstated. However, traditional ratings, according to the Credit Rating Agencies themselves, are merely opinions. The process of computation of a Probability… Read More »