• Supply shocks have created scarcity inflation, making higher inflation more persistent and increasing the risk of a growth slowdown. • Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields hit three-year highs after it became clear the Fed will start to reduce its balance sheet quickly. We see further yield rises ahead. • We… Read More »
Last week, we introduced The 4 fundamental investment shifts triggered by the current geopolitical conflict. One of the shifts we highlighted was the need to recognise that geopolitical risks are always around the corner. The chart below shows how the war in Ukraine has elevated geopolitical risks in the same… Read More »
The Euro finished the week at the bottom of the G10 rankings on concerns the war in Ukraine will not stop any time soon as well as jitters about the French presidential election. The carnage in the US bond market continues, with 10-year Treasury yields up an astounding 30 bp on the week,… Read More »
Russia’s war on Ukraine could be a game changer for global banking. European banks are in the front row, whether they are prepared or not. Market analysts and supervisors1 say that direct exposures to Russian counterparties are manageable, hence no need to panic. But in my view the impact of… Read More »
Limited impact due to National Labour contract Barclays macro team has written about how inflation affects wages in the Euro area (for example Euro area wages: Picking up (a little) dated 23-02-22, Euro Themes: Tracking the rebound of negotiated wages – Italy dated 19-01-22). Here we look at Italy only,… Read More »
Global growth expectations have dropped with the spike in oil prices, which have historically often been associated with surges in inflation, reductions in real income, and eventually recessions (Exhibit 1). However, the relationship between oil prices and growth has changed for two major reasons. On the one hand,… Read More »
• We see the West’s drive for energy security slowing growth, increasing inflation and stoking demand for non-Russian fossil fuels to alleviate consumer pain. • Data last week showed U.S. inflation at 40-year highs and a robust labor market. We expect the Fed to deliver on this year’s projected rate… Read More »
A new shock to supply We had already seen supply constraints driving high inflation over the past year, fundamentally changing how we should think about the macro environment and market implications. The pandemic resulted in a huge switch in consumer spending in the U.S., away from services and towards goods.… Read More »
BlackRock Investment Institute -
We now prefer U.S. and Japanese equities over European stocks due to the energy shock. We stay underweight bonds because of the inflationary backdrop. Market backdrop: Bond yields sprinted higher last week, with U.S. 10 year Treasuries hitting near three year highs. Signs of weakening economic activity emerged in Europe.… Read More »
In today’s turbulent world, punctuated by destabilizing events of increasing intensity and frequency, it is vital to know what a worst-case scenario is and which factors are critical. What were considered low-probability events in the past must be countered today on an almost daily basis. However, in the context of… Read More »
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