Strong trade surplus will support GDP in Q1


Mirabaud expects a positive surprise on Japanese GDP growth this quarter, with net exports likely to contribute positively, by around 0.6 percentage point. In February, the trade surplus increased markedly as export volumes (+11%) outpaced import volumes (-2%). The acceleration was broad-based, rising 7% to the US, 13% to Europe… Read More »

Brazil: the monetary lever should continue to support activity


Real activity indicators remained mixed, however. In the fourth quarter, economic activity shrank by another 3.4% on an annualised basis With rising commodity prices, Brazil’s terms of trade have improved considerably (chart 1), resulting in a recovery in confidence indices for both households and businesses. Real activity indicators remained mixed,… Read More »

China is showing, at best, some signs of stabilization


China’s outlook has the full attention of world markets. Last night saw the release of important economic data, including manufacturing PMI which came in higher than expectations at 51.3 in January versus 51.4 in December. As we know, a figure above 50 indicates expansion. This marks the sixth straight month… Read More »

China, downgrade by Moody’s, but the economy remains robust

Leo Hu -

Moody’s downgraded China’s long-term credit rating last week, after lowering its outlook on the country from stable to negative in March. As such, the rating downgrade was not a sudden development. This cut takes China’s rating from Aa3 to A1, and the outlook was changed back to stable. It was… Read More »

Situation in Brazil – what are the key questions for investors?

Sailesh Lad -

While politics was always likely to be noisy, the risk that social reforms could be substantially delayed, has likely not been priced into the bond market. Silencing corruptionBrazil’s already-unpopular President Temer faces the rising risk of impeachment. This comes after a leading newspaper revealed he had condoned paying ‘hush’ money… Read More »

The Japanese Corporate Governance

Mitesh Patel -

For too long, poor corporate governance has held Japan back in the global race. But with shareholders beginning to speak up, and companies starting to listen, this could be set to change. As recently as 2013 nearly 600 of the 1400 largest listed companies in Japan had no outside directors… Read More »