Economies

The UK looks like it has voted to leave the EU. We see protracted political and economic uncertainty, leading to a weaker GBP, pushing inflation up, and a hit to growth. In a referendum recession, we expect easier monetary and fiscal policy. Key consequence – profound and protracted uncertainty: Although… Read More »

We’ve seen some favorable headlines from China recently, including better-than-expected industrial activity. But the ‘green shoots’ we see in the Chinese economy are not likely to persist and I expect softness to resume in June or July Chinese real GDP growth slowed slightly to 6.7%, from 6.8% in 4Q15, although… Read More »

The fires fuelling the region’s stock markets are not doused by the rains and will continue smouldering Asia Heating UpAn intense heat wave is currently sweeping through South East Asia with the highest ever temperatures being observed in several countries. Mercury levels have crossed the 40°C (104oF) mark in parts… Read More »

It is now a year since we quit the Chinese stock market. The hyper-activity of policy makers has deterred us from returning but recent data flows suggest it is time to take another look. After a “risk-on” week in financial markets, the mood darkened on Friday as hopes faded of… Read More »

The SNB is clearly in a reactive stance rather than taking a proactive strategy As we had expected, the SNB held its policy rates unchanged (Sight deposit rate -0.75% & 3month Libor -0.25% to -0.75%) while not tinkering with tightening banks threshold exemptions on negative rates. We suspect, given the… Read More »

Chinese markets had a weak start to the year in line with the sell-off in most global risk assets in January as investors focused on: the weak oil price, the future trajectory of US interest rates and, close to home, policy confusion and the uncertainties surrounding the renminbi and capital… Read More »

A slump in key asset values in China could destabilize the economy and the financial sector unless proper measures are in place to anchor investor confidence China’s financial institutions face a harsher year ahead. Corporate defaults are likely to increase as the central government gradually withdraws its implicit support for… Read More »

For many analysts, it’s difficult to be positive about Japan over the long-term given its demographic headwind. The old-age dependency ratio may rise by 70% by 2050. The government has forecast that the population may halve within 70 years. Although the population is only falling 0.3% per year so far,… Read More »

The latest economic indicators confirm that the eurozone’s upswing, although not spectacular, remains on track, thanks to resilient consumer demand and intra-European exports. The latest indicators are converging to suggest that the pickup in the eurozone economy gathered momentum at the end of 2015, Standard & Poor’s said in the… Read More »

The yen is poised to remain a structurally weak currency. In coming weeks, yen volatility is expected to rise as short-term market players’ position for potential changes in central bank policy. Here we maintain our call for added ease from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to be in place by… Read More »