UK inflation jumps more than expected


The impact from the fall in the pound has started to feed through to import price inflation, but we expect the Bank of England (BoE) to hold fire on raising interest rates. UK consumer price inflation has jumped to its highest rate since September 2013, as the fall in the… Read More »

For the optimistic investor, look to Japan

Archibald Ciganer -

The Japanese equity market ran the range of investor emotions in 2016, as sentiment shifted from very negative early in the year, amid fears of a macroeconomic crisis, to positive later on, inspired by Donald Trump’s election in the U.S. and his pro-growth rhetoric. A timely reminder of the highly… Read More »

Europe: progress despite the politics


?With newspapers full of Trump, Brexit and speculation about European politics – especially the upcoming French elections – it would be understandable if European investors opted to head for the hills. But US equity indices have continued to hit new highs and the party mood seems to have spilt over… Read More »

Opportunities in Mexico despite Trump


There is a sound economic and political case for expecting a relatively benign outcome for Mexico Two weeks ago I met with a number of companies in Mexico. Obviously it was a very topical time to be in that part of the world, given everything President Trump has said and… Read More »

French elections: what to expect should Le Pen prevail


Should Marine Le Pen win the French presidential election, the immediate reaction of markets is likely to be a spike in volatility for French assets due to the uncertainty of what is to come. Elections in April and May will see a new French president emerge. Recent polls suggest the… Read More »

A new dawn for the land of the rising sun


Japan, the land of the rising sun, has seen many false dawns. As Charles Gave said this week, ‘Japan has been a reliable source of disappointment for investors for more than a quarter of a century’. However, there are reasons for optimism and pockets of strength, with some areas of… Read More »

Le Pen risk overstated: add to banks & France

Equity Research - Credit Suisse -

Credit Suisse thinks the risk of a Le Pen victory is overestimated: The 30% chance priced in betting markets is too high. We think the risk of a Le Pen victory is overestimated: The 30% chance priced in betting markets is too high in our view as: (i) Marine Le Pen… Read More »

Russia: more illusion than opportunity


Russia has always gripped the western public’s imagination. Take investors’ dreams of fabulous riches or moviegoers’ anticipation of another Russian villain’s demise at the hands of James Bond. Ironically, the current situation in the Kremlin seems to be taken straight out of an Ian Fleming book with a former secret-service… Read More »

Europe: the scene is set for an(other) historic year


The rise of the populist vote will continue to dominate the political agenda in 2017 elections across Europe. The risks and uncertainty involved in these elections is far more material than it has been in recent cycles. 2016 will be remembered as the year when the populist vote triumphed. While… Read More »

Asia might not be too worried about US protectionism


Trump’s decision to remove the US from the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) was a formality given that Congress was unlikely to ratify the deal during Obama’s final months. Additionally, his disapproval for the TPP was evident throughout the campaign, suggesting that withdrawal was not only well advertised but also fully… Read More »