It has been the combination of better growth and flow data from China, the strong global search for yield and the improving growth momentum in the emerging world that explains why investor risk appetite towards EM assets has increased so much recently. EM growth momentum continues to strengthen. It is… Read More »
Gold back in favour as investors seek protection against uncertainties ahead. Last week the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting took centre stage following a similar policy response post Brexit to the Bank of England. President Draghi decided to leave interest rates unchanged and lacked clarity on the likelihood of further… Read More »
European Banks have underperformed the market by c.10% post UK’s Leave vote, and, trading at 0.77x TBV for 2016E (c.7.5% ROTE), a shallow recession is already priced in. The next event is the EBA stress test on 29 July, and in isolation we argue this could be a positive outcome.… Read More »
James Butterfill, Aneeka Gupta -
CAPE (cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio)serves as a more effective valuation metric in forecasting long term equity market returns relative to its 12-month trailing PE Hunting for value in CAPEInvestors are frequently known to misjudge when to gain exposure or exit the stock markets as fear and greed prevail over rational… Read More »
Investors have begun to rotate away from defensive assets such as gold and the Swiss Franc into cyclical assets such as industrial metals and oil The surprisingly quick appointment of a new Prime Minister and the formation of a new Cabinet in the UK provided investors some relief in a… Read More »
Credit Suisse reviews our sector weightings post the Brexit vote to conclude: Add selectively to domestic UK sectors. We have been underweight domestic UK since last September. Sterling remains the critical driver for domestic sectors and we continue to target GBPUSD 1.20 into a full Brexit (GDP is likely to… Read More »
Lower-for-Longer Growth Expectations and Return of Volatility a Challenge to All Investors State Street Global Advisors (SSGA) the asset management business of State Street Corporation (NYSE: STT), today released its six month check-up on the 2016 market outlook and key investment themes. In the wake of the Brexit vote in… Read More »
Gold remains investor favourite, topping US$1bn since EU Referendum. US Payrolls took centre stage last week, shocking the market with an upside surprise, with the US economy adding 287k jobs in June. The US economic recovery remains on track and with wage growth continuing to build momentum. The September US… Read More »
John Bennett -
Having been cautious on markets all year, we went into the referendum with a defensive posture to our holdings with large weightings in healthcare as well as the recently built exposure to oil majors. This positioning was based on fundamentals and not because of any prescience about the outcome of… Read More »
Inflows into gold ETPs of US$263mn on Friday 1st July were at their highest since inception, Brexit has also driven large inflows into other safe haven assets such as silver and Swiss Franc Britain’s unexpected decision to leave the EU triggered a market panic on Friday 24th and Monday 27th… Read More »
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