The bond bubble is bursting. How spectacular will it be?


Key drivers shaping bond markets have changed. Keeping a global perspective and knowing which macro signals to watch for can help you prepare for changes in bond yields. During an unprecedented period of political change across the globe, from the UK referendum on EU membership to the election of Donald… Read More »

What is behind the rise of global bond yields?


Since last November, investors’ sentiment has turned into ‘risk-on’ mode, favouring risky assets and equities relative to bonds. The rise in global yields and the steepening of yield curves has fuelled fears about the end of the 35-year bond bull market. US yields drive up global yieldsSince the early 2000s,… Read More »

Bond, Emerging Markets: a good diversification in 2017


The year has opened with a common presumption that global growth – especially US growth – will accelerate and that “reflation” will be a consistent theme. Though that scenario would bode poorly for many parts of emerging market debt, better growth prospects would make credit risk a good bet for… Read More »

Largest inflows into commodity ETP baskets since May 2016


Inflows of US$58.5mn into broad commodity ETPs, marks the highest in eight months Signalling the broad-based interest in commodities, commodity basket ETPs see their highest inflows since May 2016. Following five years of underperformance, commodities made a come-back in 2016. We continue to see interest in diversified commodity baskets as… Read More »

Upward slope : start rolling down


Amid long yields that would climb marginally higher but at a slower pace, and short-term yields that will stay below inflation in many developed countries, investors scarcely have a choice when it comes to boosting the performance of their bond portfolios : either take on credit risk or duration risk.… Read More »

Macro backdrop favours Australian equities but headwinds linger


Revival in commodity prices has improved the macro outlook for Australia’s export driven economy. Commodity upswing benefits macro outlookRising commodity prices in 2016, in particular iron ore (+80%) and coal (+300%), have pushed Australia’s trade balance into surplus for the first time since 2014. The improved terms of trade (export… Read More »

Gold and the US Dollar back in favour


Gold inflows rebound to the highest levels in 16 weeks, and the fourth consecutive week of inflows Gold inflows rebound to the highest levels in 16 weeks, and the fourth consecutive week of inflows. Long Gold ETPs received US$65.4mn – the largest inflows across the commodity complex as the US… Read More »

Joking about supply and demand

Chris Iggo -

If a reason to get involved with the Trump rally was a sense that the President-elect would become more presidential the closer we got to inauguration day, then it is not surprising that some investors are having second thoughts. He is proving to be as unpredictable and entertaining as he… Read More »

European Banks: Be Mindful of Risks in 2017


European banks seem to be on an upward trajectory – although improvements are likely to come at a slow pace and with some risks. For the time being, European bank CEOs will continue to look enviously at their counterparts across the Atlantic as US bankers enjoy an optimistic outlook on… Read More »