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Economies

Mexico Automotive Industry: Headwinds coming from the North

he Mexican automotive industry has experienced strong growth since the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1993. The sector representativeness rose, from 1.5% of GDP and 8.5% of the manufacturing output in 1993, to 3% of GDP and 18% of manufacturing output in 2015.

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Revisiting North Korea tail risks

While we have increased moderately the probability of the tail risk scenario for North Korea (military conflict), it remains a low probability event.

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China, a haven of stability?

China’s annual average GDP growth over the medium term (2018-2020) has just been revised up by the IMF – from 6.0% to 6.4%, on expectations of further increases in public and private debt.

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Second Half Outlook for Asian Markets

For Asian equity markets, we hold a constructive outlook for the second half of this year, as the political and economic environment is more conducive towards earnings growth and is generally less vulnerable to global volatility.

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