In aggregate, the bond asset class remains expensive. Government bond yields are too low to tempt a meaningful increase in duration exposure, credit spreads are so tight that it is difficult adding credit risk especially when most fixed income investors are already overweight credit relative to rates. So the market… Read More »
The markets were widely anticipating the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would raise interest rates at its March policy meeting, and the Fed delivered, increasing its key short-term lending rate—the Federal funds rate—for the second time in three months. The Fed also indicated it hasn’t likely finished its tightening cycle yet,… Read More »
ECB highlight deposit rate could rise earlier than prime rate Investors debate tapering – raising the deposit rate would be more bullish for banks. We discussed that a higher deposit rate would be more positive for banks than tapering, as 1) the former would be a strong signal that the… Read More »
Raymond Sagayam (Chief investment officer fixed income – Pictet Asset Management) remains optimistic about fixed income’s prospects in this Q&A session from the turn of the year. Do you think the global bull market for fixed income that started in the early 1980s is coming to an end?RS: Is this… Read More »
The bond bubble has burst, but it remains to be seen how quickly the fallout may spread. The first stage of the sell-off has taken many global core government bond yields up to 0.50% to 1.25% higher. Markets now await additional clarity around US and Chinese policy actions before making… Read More »
No-one really seems to have enjoyed the current economic expansion and now, because it has been going on for several years, some are worrying about the end. The typical end of cycle signs are there – rising inflation, higher interest rates, leverage and overvalued financial assets. But, really, they are… Read More »
Unigestion, the boutique asset manager with scale, reports that its Nowcaster indicators are highlighting stronger inflation and growth around the world. Amidst market excitement around the possibility of an imminent Fed rate hike, Unigestion’s Nowcasters are pointing to stronger inflation and growth – with the overall trend moving beyond reflation… Read More »
Renewed investment inflows and rising performance are the dominant early 2017 trends in emerging markets (EM). This represents a dramatic turnaround from the outflows, volatility, and protectionist fears of the post-US election period. We believe investors should look beyond the headlines and toward the long term when it comes to… Read More »
Chris Iggo -
Bond returns are not negative so far this year. Yes, that’s right. The bears were too bearish again. Most of the rise in yields came in the month or so after the US election. Since the turn of the year, bond investors have benefitted from stable to lower core yields,… Read More »
US equities have started the year in an amazingly tranquil way. Under such calm, the Dow and S&P500 have reached record levels. Consensus is optimistic, expecting corporate earnings growth of 21% this year, while the VIX is exceptionally low. The VIX is exceptionally lowThe VIX, a perceived measure of market… Read More »
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