Ebury: Il calo dell’Euribor accelera: la BCE pronta a nuovi tagli dei tassi d’interesse

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L’Euribor continua la sua discesa su tutte le scadenze, riflettendo le aspettative di ulteriori tagli dei tassi da parte della Banca Centrale Europea. I dati sull’inflazione di settembre nell’Eurozona, scesa sotto il 2% per la prima volta dal 2021, hanno confermato il trend disinflazionistico, spingendo i mercati a prevedere nuovi interventi di politica monetaria espansiva già nelle prossime riunioni. Tuttavia, le recenti tensioni in Medio Oriente potrebbero complicare la situazione, con un aumento dei prezzi dell’energia che metterebbe sotto pressione l’economia.

“Euribor continues to fall sharply across all maturities, as markets price in more and larger cuts from the ECB. This week, the inflation numbers out of the Eurozone for the month of September fell below 2% for the first time since early 2021. While the more meaningful core subindex that excludes volatile food and energy components is higher at 2.7%, the disinflationary trend is undeniable and will give cover for further monetary easing.

 

The escalation in Middle East tensions has only added to the pressure on the ECB to ease policy and provide monetary support to the economy, although monetary easing will do little to help the Eurozne economy in the face of a fresh spike in energy prices. As a result, markets are already pricing in a near certainty of an interest rate cut at the October meeting of the ECB, and a non-trivial probability of a 50 bps cut at the December one.”

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