La Svizzera conclude un accordo che riduce drasticamente i dazi USA. L’analisi di Lombard Odier

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La Svizzera e i dazi USA
Di Samy Chaar, Chief Economist, CIO Switzerland

L’accordo tra la Svizzera e l’amministrazione Trump per ridurre più della metà l’aliquota tariffaria statunitense, dal 39% al 15%, rappresenta un’importante boccata d’ossigeno per l’economia alpina, fortemente orientata all’export. In cambio, la Svizzera ha accettato di investire 200 miliardi di dollari negli Stati Uniti.

Punti chiave:

  • Gli Stati Uniti e la Svizzera hanno concordato di ridurre i dazi all’importazione statunitensi dal 39% al 15%.

  • In cambio, la Svizzera si è impegnata a investire 200 miliardi di dollari negli USA.

  • Alziamo la nostra previsione di crescita del PIL svizzero per il 2026 dallo 0,9% all’1,2%, poiché stimiamo che l’impatto negativo dei dazi USA sulla crescita passerà dallo 0,5% allo 0,2%.

  • I nostri portafogli sono posizionati per beneficiare di questo scenario, con un sovrappeso sulle azioni svizzere.

Key takeaways
The US and Switzerland have agreed to lower US import tariffs to 15% from 39%
In return Switzerland has committed to USD 200 bn worth of investments
We raise our Swiss GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 0.9% to 1.2% as we estimate the hit to GDP growth
from US tariffs will decrease from 0.5% to 0.2%
Our portfolios are positioned to benefit, with an overweight exposure to Swiss equities. We anticipate slightly
higher bond yields and see the Swiss franc posting measured gains.
Switzerland’s agreement with the Trump administration to more than halve its tariff rate from 39% to 15%, will
be a welcome relief to the export-oriented Alpine economy. In return Switzerland has agreed to invest USD 200
billion in the US.
The agreement, which follows a Swiss business delegation visit to the White House, improves the outlook for the Swiss
economy. The deal brings Switzerland’s tariff rate into line with the neighbouring European Union. In the light of the
agreement, we revise our GDP growth outlook from 0.9% to 1.2% in 2026. The driver behind our growth upgrade is that
a 15% tariff applied to all Swiss exports to the US, excluding those currently exempt such as pharmaceuticals, would
reduce the tariff hit to GDP from around 0.5% of GDP to 0.2% – or less.
Tariffs on Swiss pharmaceuticals remain a wildcard in trade talks with the US, as the sector may still be subject to
sectoral duties. In addition, a challenge to the constitutional basis of the US import tariffs levied through International
Emergency Economic Powers Act (including tariffs on the Swiss economy) is currently before the US Supreme Court. A
ruling against the application of tariffs by the Supreme Court is likely to have minimal impact on markets because there
are alternative mechanisms for the US to impose duties. In any case, if the Trump administration replaced some of its
existing tariff mechanisms, they would likely only be lowered to the same level of 15%.
Since 7 August 2025 , a 39% tariff has been applied to most Swiss goods exports to the US. That was the highest tariff
applied to any developed economy, and affected nearly two-thirds of Switzerland’s goods exports to the US. The only
exemptions were products already covered or potentially covered by sectoral tariffs, including pharmaceuticals,
semiconductors, consumer electronics and some minerals.
We expect the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to maintain interest rates on hold at zero percent. The threshold for imposing
negative interest rates is high unless growth or inflation were to weaken materially: on the contrary, the trade deal
reinforces our positive outlook for the Swiss economy in 2026.
Our portfolios are well positioned to benefit from this announcement. We increased our exposure to Swiss stocks to
overweight in September, as we anticipated upside potential in a market that is heavily weighted to healthcare and
financial sectors, with attractive valuations and improving earnings. The Swiss franc is also rebounding and should gain
modestly in an environment where we continue to expect a softer US dollar. We expect the Swiss sovereign bond yield
curve to steepen, given an already low inflation forecast from the SNB, and positive news on tariffs supporting growth.
Short-dated government bond yields should remain negative, depending on Swiss franc strength.