Mercati in allerta: secondo Ebury il conflitto in Medio Oriente spinge al rialzo il prezzo del petrolio e rafforza i beni rifugio

Le crescenti tensioni geopolitiche in Medio Oriente stanno scatenando una reazione prevedibile sui mercati finanziari, con una diffusa avversione al rischio che colpisce diversi asset. Le borse mondiali sono in calo, mentre le valute rifugio, come il dollaro americano, stanno sovraperformando, anche grazie ai recenti commenti da falco del presidente della Fed, Jerome Powell. La possibile interferenza dell’Iran nel conflitto potrebbe destabilizzare ulteriormente i mercati, con il rischio di un’impennata dei prezzi del petrolio.

“Financial markets have reacted as one would expect to the heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with a bout of risk aversion sweeping through asset classes in the past 24 hours. Equity markets worldwide are trading lower and, in currencies, the safe-havens have outperformed most of their peers. This includes the US dollar, which remains buoyed following some hawkish comments from Fed chair Powell earlier in the week.

The involvement of Iran in the conflict is a particularly troublesome development for markets, with investors rightly fearful that retaliation from Israel could disrupt global oil supplies, given that Iran is the seventh largest oil producer in the world. Brent crude oil prices have jumped back above $75 a barrel on the news, a move of around 4% on Tuesday alone. Israel’s PM Netanyahu has vowed to strike back, and we would expect another leg upwards in oil should these threats materialise.

The wider implications for markets is the rising possibility of a sharp move higher in global oil futures, and another period of elevated energy prices and consumer inflation. The ramifications will not, however, be anywhere near as severe as following the Ukraine invasion, and so far, at least, the moves in markets have been relatively contained.”