Mercato azionario spagnolo. Una buona ripresa: moderato ottimismo degli analisti

According to the original Buffet Indicator, the Stock Market is Modestly Undervalued.
Ratio of total market cap over GDP: Recent 20 Year Maximum – 126.48%; Recent 20 Year Minimum – 39.85%; current – 54.06%
Expected future annual return: 9.3%

Based on the newly introduced total market cap over GDP plus Total Assets of Central Bank ratio, the Stock Market is Significantly Undervalued.

Ratio of total market cap over GDP plus Total Assets of Central Bank: Recent 20 Year Maximum – 110.25%; Recent 20 Year Minimum – 22.38%; current – 31.24%
Modified expected future annual return: 12.7%

ETF Used for dividend yield: EWP (Yield=2.62%)
Market Index used: IBEX 35
Current Annual GDP: $1,427 billion US dollars or 1,329 in billions of national currency (GDP in Local Current Prices Annual Growth=2.88%)
Current Total Asset of Central Bank: $1,042 billion US dollars or 970 in billions of national currency
Data since year 1993

Spain Historical GDP Growth

Historical GDP of Spain in billions of national currency. The GDP in local current prices has grown at the annual rate of 2.88% over the past 8 years. Please note this growth rate includes the effect of price inflation and it is NOT the real GDP growth rate. Current Annual GDP: $1,427 billion US dollars or 1,329 in billions of national currency.

Historical Stock Market Cap

Historical total market of Spain in billions of national currency. This value is normalized using the data published by WorldBank. IBEX 35 is used for the normalization. It is a market capitalization weighted index comprising the 35 most liquid Spanish stocks traded in the Madrid Stock Exchange General Index.

Historical Total Assets of Central Bank

Historical Total Assets of Central Bank of Spain in billions of national currency, which is obtained from each country’s central bank balance sheet. Please be aware that if the total assets is displayed as zero or – , it suggests that there’s no data available rather than the original data being zero. In this case, the modified version of both the ratio and projected annualized market return will be treated the same as the original version.

Original and Modified Historical Ratio of Total Market Cap over GDP (%)

The current ratio of total market cap over GDP for Spain is 54.06%. The recent 20 year high was 126.48%; the recent 20 low was 39.85%. If we assume that the ratio will reverse to the recent 20 years mean of 73.03% over the next 8 years, the contribution to expected annual return is 3.83%.

Based on the modified version, the current TMC / (GDP + Total Assets of Central Bank) Ratio for Spain is 31.24%. The recent 20 year high was 110.25%; the recent 20 low was 22.38%. If we assume that the ratio will reverse to the recent 20 years mean of 54.6% over the next 8 years, the contribution to expected annual return is 7.23%.

Based on these historical valuations, we have divided market valuation into five zones:

Based on these modified historical valuations, we have divided market valuation into five zones:

Predicted and Actual Returns

From the equation presented on the U.S. market valuation page,

Investment Return (%) = Dividend Yield (%) + Business Growth (%) + (Re/Rb)(1/T)-1

We can compute the predicted and actual returns of the Spain stock market over a given time period, T. In the calculation, we set T to equal eight years, the approximate length of a full economic cycle. The calculated results are presented in the chart below.

The Predicted Return line indicates the expected, or predicted annualized return for the next eight years if the current TMC / GDP ratio reverts to its recent 20 years mean of 73.03%.

The Modified Predicted Return line indicates the expected, or predicted annualized return for the next eight years if the current TMC / (GDP + Total Assets of Central Bank) ratio reverts to its recent 20 years mean of 54.6%.

The Actual Return line indicates the actual, annualized return of the Spain stock market over eight years. We use “IBEX 35” to do the actual return calculation. We can see the calculations largely predicted the trend in the stock market as the actual return line is closely parallel to the two predicted return lines.

Conclusion

Under the original buffett indicator, the stock market of Spain is expected to return 9.3% a year for the coming years. This is from the contribution of economic growth in local current prices: 2.88%, Dividend Yield: 2.62% and valuation reverse to the mean 3.83%.

Under the modified model, the contribution of economic growth and dividend yield stays the same while the valuation reverse to mean changes to 7.23%. Consequently, the stock market of Spain is expected to return 12.7% a year.

This is the projected return and the modified projected return of the stock market in Spain relative to other countries. Click on the country on the right sidebar to check out the details for each country.